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(Jaw hits floor.)

10,000 volunteers?

175 staging areas???

In a state Obama wasn't supposed to be competitive???????

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 08:01:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I feel good about that.  They saw what I saw.  So maybe I wasn't completely full of shit about Georgia.

Unless they were too.  That's possible.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 08:17:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Kudos to you for sensing it.

I sure didn't.

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 08:38:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
From Atlanta's own InsiderAdvantage:

McCain 48
Obama 47

Sez they:

McCain will win Georgia if the African-American turnout is less than 32 percent of the overall vote and if Obama's percentage of the white vote is 26 percent or less. If the turnout for African-Americans is at or above 32 percent or if Obama carries, say, 28 percent of the white vote, then Obama wins. So this will be a nip-and-tuck race. It will not be a 7-point blow out.

That's precisely my math.  Every last digit.  I have Obama coming in at 28% white support with a 31/32% black share.  The Mother of All Upsets.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 09:49:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So, by the way, what's your final prediction?

Mine's probably too high.  But I'll happily take 270.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 08:18:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll go with 378.

I think the Obama ground game is going to out do the polling.  A good GOTV always does.

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 08:42:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
378?  What states?

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 09:15:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Kerry States plus Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Georgia, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Missouri.

Which actually works out to 379 now that I tot it up using ARG's calculator.

In the second tier: Indiana, Montana, North Dakota giving 396.

Should things get really intense we might see: Texas, Lousiana, and South Carolina for 447.  And that, methinks, is where Obama tops out.  

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 10:14:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Arizona in the second tier as well, I assume?

I have Obama topping out at 406.  447, perhaps, if black folks held at a similar pace in "Loozianna" to Georgia, and if Obama took 80% of Latinos.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 10:19:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Think it is going to be "Close but no cigar" in Arizona.  Obama jumped in too late to pull it out.
by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 12:20:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Your math is the same as mine, except I've got Indiana rather than Missouri.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 10:21:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thought about Indiana.

Finally I decided what with the entrenched GOP, the early closing time, and it did go for Bush by 20 points in '04 I couldn't see it flipping.

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 12:28:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And, like nanne, you're probably right.  I recognize the facts point to Missouri rather than Indiana, but, as the great Ronald Reagan once said, "Facts are stupid things." ;)

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 08:44:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why aren't the few democrat senate candidates that would get the 60-strong majority bathing in cash as to buy the whole day of yesterday in TV propaganda ?

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 06:00:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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