Obama 17 McCain 10 Paul 2
Here are the currently known official results of 2008 US Presidential Election:
Obama 32 64% McCain 16 32% Paul 2 4%
Might as well call it now.
I'm wondering tentatively if there's going to be a reverse Dewey-Truman - the polls get it completely wrong, but in the wrong direction.
I'm thinking of the map you posted the past few days where Indiana was one of the first two states to close the polls, despite not being on the East Coast.
Also, it's interesting that in Europe there's an 'embargo' on announcing election results until all polling stations have closed. Obviously the US is unconcerned about voters being influenced by known partial results. Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
It would be useful to know the previous voting habits of these people and the demographic spread. Even if it's a tiny sample it's still a huge shift.
The anecdotal evidence is that McCain has lost the confidence of his party and ceded a non-trivial demographic spread to Obama. This is one small data point which supports that. There may be good reasons for the shift - maybe the population has changed since 2004 - but it's not just random noise.
The Command Post - 2004 US Presidential Election - Hart's Location a dead heat; Nader a spoiler!
New Hampshire | Hart's Location a dead heat; Nader a spoiler! Bush won early this morning in a 19-7 landslide in Dixville Notch, NH, which is no surprise given the town's Republican-leaning tendencies. But in New Hampshire's other early-voting hamlet, Hart's Location, it's a tie! How fitting in this deadlocked election. The tally: Bush 15, Kerry 15, Nader 1. Hey, look, Ralph Nader cost Kerry the election! :) So, if you're keeping score at home, with something like 0.01% of the precincts reporting, it's Bush 34, Kerry 22, Nader 1 in the Granite State.
Bush won early this morning in a 19-7 landslide in Dixville Notch, NH, which is no surprise given the town's Republican-leaning tendencies.
But in New Hampshire's other early-voting hamlet, Hart's Location, it's a tie! How fitting in this deadlocked election. The tally: Bush 15, Kerry 15, Nader 1.
Hey, look, Ralph Nader cost Kerry the election! :)
So, if you're keeping score at home, with something like 0.01% of the precincts reporting, it's Bush 34, Kerry 22, Nader 1 in the Granite State.
And the Dixville Notch wikipedia page has a list of its poll and primary results back to 1960 Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
I kind of doubt it, since it's probably just a wacky sample, but you never know. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
