Popular Vote:
Obama 53.5 McCain 45.7 Other .8%
Electoral College:
Obama 379 McCain 159
Obama gets the Kerry states, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Indiana, and Georgia. Definitely a gut feeling rather than pure math on Indiana and Georgia.
Comes up a little short in Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, and Arizona. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
I'll be around till tiredness and alcohol claim me. I won't be making an effort to stay up cos there'll be more to see in the morning here. keep to the Fen Causeway
Buried half way down in one of the less obvious features is the fact that the black guy is polling ahead nationally and in all of the states that matter, and that - as a passing footnopte of no obvious interest or relevance - his last Ohio rallies have been getting audiences of 60-80,000.
Also amusing - no mention of the mass defections from the Repubs to Camp Obama. Or of the Obama ground game.
McCain remains relaxed and confident, obviously - much made of the fact that 'The Mac is Back.'
I hope there's someone standing by with Lysol for those exploding brains at BBC Election HQ.
Had a panic-stricken call from a German friend over the weekend worried McCain was closing within striking distance.
I assuaged his fears.
It's really hard to get a valid population for those things.
You just want a butt-load of Statistical data to munch, crunch, slice, and dice.
:-D
"Some of my best friends ..."
LOL
Obama wins in earliest vote in tiny Dixville, NH | AP
Barack Obama came up a big winner in the presidential race in Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, N.H., where tradition of having the first Election Day ballots tallied lives on. Democrat Obama defeated Republican John McCain by a count of 15 to 6 in Dixville Notch, where a loud whoop accompanied the announcement in Tuesday's first minutes. The town of Hart's Location reported 17 votes for Obama, 10 for McCain and two for write-in Ron Paul. Independent Ralph Nader was on both towns' ballots but got no votes.
Democrat Obama defeated Republican John McCain by a count of 15 to 6 in Dixville Notch, where a loud whoop accompanied the announcement in Tuesday's first minutes. The town of Hart's Location reported 17 votes for Obama, 10 for McCain and two for write-in Ron Paul. Independent Ralph Nader was on both towns' ballots but got no votes.
I don't think the Indy people were ready for the swarm of Chicagoans who descended upon their little town. They were pretty unorganized in the morning; they didn't have enough walk packets ready for all the people there, but by the time we got back from our first outing, everything was running like a well oiled machine. It was a pretty dramatic improvement. They also had 44 staging areas in the city, which is impressive because it's a small city. All these hotel rooms became impromptu staging locations. In ours, there were a couple of nice old women who cooked up soul food for all the volunteers. I guess that was their way of helping out. That was some spicy chicken....
On the way home, we were pulled over for speeding. LOL. Also, we were listening to Bruce Springsteen's The Rising. I have to say, I had one of those moments where you are jerked out of your skin and see how profound things are. 4 complete strangers, who got up before the sun to drive through the heartland to do their civic duty. Listening to "Into the fire", realizing how historic this election was... I got goosebumps.
Because we were canvassing Dem voters, there was positive response. But I will add that just walking down the street, people driving past and out in their yards would see us in our Obama gear and wave, honk, shout out. And every gas station or restaurant we stopped at, the person behind the counter wanted to talk about the election, and were supporting Obama.
He's not expected to win IN. But it is now within the realm of possibility. Worst case scenario, we make the GOP spend their cash defending it and a lot of people who never vote go vote. Best case, he wins it. "Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
It's 75 here in ChiTown today. Crazy!!! "Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
The blogs will have on-location reports from people, rumors will be in abundance, Drudge will leak unweighted exit polls that will all cause either panic or exhilaration, the polls will close, and we'll finally get the true story. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
If the latter it's going to be a mildly interesting night.
(I'm practicing my British understatement muscles.)
A 10/31 Research 2000/Kos poll of the Kentucky race has:
McConnell (R) 47 (46) Lunsford (D) 44 (42)
Already voted (16% of sample)
McConnell (R) 44 Lunsford (D) 56
which is looking good for Lunsford. Going into tomorrow with a 12% lead means the GOP has to first dig themselves out of a hole before they can pull ahead. Also the Dem GOTV operation can concentrate on getting identified Dem voters to the polls by ranking: firm Obama voters to Undecideds.
They are expecting a 70% turn-out in Kentucky.
The WSJ poll has Obama leading 51 to 43 (MOE 4%.)
McCain gutted the budget for his GOTV operation to fund his weekend advertising. This is going to hurt his voting totals.
I'm expecting GOP national vote totals to revert to '00 levels which was ~50 million. I'm expecting Dem turn-out to be the same (due to racism) as the Kerry '04 numbers, ~59 million. These raw vote estimates projects to a 54.13% to 45.87% Obama win; roughly in-line with the WSJ poll. Giving an Obama win of 8.26%.
This is (barely) within Landslide territory.
With these numbers it is possible to conclude the Georgia and Kentucky Senate races are definitely in play. Giving an outside chance the GOP is going to be slaughtered in this election, losing 10 Senate seats and upwards of 35 House seats.
I never bought it, frankly, but as you know I'm not a big believer in the Bradley Effect (which is basically what the pundits were predicting). I thought the demographics said they'd break with a slight McCain lean, but nothing incredible, and a break for Obama is hardly out of the question. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
Also during the sacrifice birds were seen flying from the East to the West.
What else does one need?
Beltway CW sez McCain gets a 70/30 split of undecideds.
No way. Nonsense.
I'll your 55/45 Obama/McCain projection. Obama has out hustled McCain in every single state he's entered. That's what gets the Undecideds.
Also worth noting: undecideds sometimes, who knows how often, say they are undecided for weird personal reasons: the need for attention, the desire for people to leave them alone, the paranoia that their neighbors will find out. They may very well know who they are voting for. "Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
I don't agree.
The Dems have too many structural advantages. Or it could be put the GOP has too many disadvantages. These advantages and Obama's GOTV is teh awesome and something the country has never seen.
Ever.
Could I be wrong? Of course.
But the ground operation is critical for getting 'your' Undecideds to the polls as, by definition, these voters are low-information, low-enthusiasm, and loosely attached to the process. The CW is based on previous elections where the GOP had the superior ground game.
Stick with me kid and you'll be wearing horse poop as big as diamonds.
I am older, thus wiser, than you.
Hey, I whomped you on Iowa. Now if you'll please toss my nerf football back into my yard, that'd be swell. ;) Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
Seriously, I've learned a lot from your posts. Thank you.
What we can state with confidence is the McCain campaign has a severely broken GOTV operation which means Obama DOES have a major structure advantage in the attempt to carry this group.
Meanwhile, all campaign long Obama has over-preformed Southern polling. Southerners in general and AAs, in particular, don't like giving their voting intents over the telephone to strangers. I'd be willing to wage this upturn is in the South.
We could even be looking at SC going Obama.
At which point my head will explode.
You and Justin Webb. This could get messy. keep to the Fen Causeway
And the muffled sound of ka-boom ripples across the US.
ka-boom
;-)
This is VERY unlikely, BTW.
I had no idea that the South used to be a Dem stronghold, or just how badly Dems have been slaughtered in landslides.
There has never been a true Dem landslide of 400+. Clinton came closest, but there's been nothing to match the total wipe outs inflicted on Dukakis and McGovern.
And Abe Lincoln was a Republican. "Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
That signing was basis of the GOP Southern Strategy.
The history of American politics is largely a history of conservative industrialists and capitalists with brief periods of pretty strong liberalism thrown in when things got way off track.
The Dems were the party of slavery and, later, Jim Crow right up to the 1960s. Johnson said, just before he signed the Civil Rights Act, "We've lost the South for a generation." It's been three generations, actually. Might finally start to see some daylight tomorrow (ironically, with a black nominee). Dems did the right thing and paid for it by losing a lot of for forty years.
But, really, we've been in a conservative swing for forty years. Prior to Nixon, it was a liberal swing, even under guys like Ike. Now we seem to be at the very front end of the next realignment, which looks like a liberal one. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
We're sort of an international crowd with a focus on Europe but many of us have lived long times in the States or are dual nationals.
After all the Europeans invented the "salon"- the French actually which gave us the modern French language, clear and concise. And our subversive federalists used to hang around those salons in the old days.
But what is the American equivalent? "Lounge" alliterates well. Drinks are on the house.
Drinks are on the house.
You may regret that offer. Especially if Crazy Horse and Metatone bulk order the Caol Ila keep to the Fen Causeway
actually have two new Coal Ilas at 24 and 27 yrs, a Port Ellen sherry cask at 25, and a Tomatin distilled in 1976 and bottled a few months ago. Should help me get past my hand cast depression, when opened.
been really down with my hand so swollen (no, haven't forgot that there's no damage and just soreness in the hip). reading analysis of 25 years of securitization hasn't helped. a nice pickup from de Gondi's accounts of student liveliness though. "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
And I'll raise a glass of cheap Weinbrand left over from the WG Party here last Saturday. The Queen Margot being alle.
In Missouri, Obama is doing better in the polls the few last days, equalising or pulling ahead of McCain. If IN goes Obama, MO should too, and I think by a bigger margin.
There's been less polling in North Dakota, but that polling has been better for Obama.
In Georgia, we're relying on the pollster's models to be flawed (the African American share of the electorate becoming much larger). So you have PPP out there today with a 2 point lead for McCain, which should be bridged, but SurveyUSA shows him ahead by five, which would become a stretch.
P.S. Latest Alaska poll has McCain up by 3 points. Begich up by 7 against Stevens, Berkowitz by 6 against Young.
I'll go with the landslide and give Obama ND, MT and MO as well, for 396 to 142.
If Obama wins Georgia, Martin will also win against Chambliss. So that makes 59 Senate seats. Only 1 upset needed from there.
Otherwise, the Zogby Polling Model assumes a 2004-like turn-out. Ain't gonna happen.
Okay - make that very amusing.
But it'll be the fault of the same liberal media that won it for Gore and Kerry. keep to the Fen Causeway
Indiana, on the other hand, has Illinois, Ohio, Michigan and Kentucky. Now, granted, Kentucky's as backwards and stupid as it gets, but still....
Meh, you're probably right. Missouri has Kansas City and St Louis, so it's probably more likely. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
Otherwise, going by a comparison of Missouri and Indiana on fivethirtyeight, the states are similar in a lot of ways, but MO should be slightly more friendly to the Democrats.
If Obama can re-constitute the McCaskill coalition he's got it. On the plus side, she was an early supporter (Jan. 2008) of Obama. Don't know how that is playing-out.
The M & M squad (Marek and Mary) are utterly failing in their task of keeping us informed of current happenings in Missouri. For some reason they, the slackers, are putting electing Obama as their first priority.
Here are some posts from an acquaintance who has gone to work in Mo.
http://www.prairiestateblue.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4639
http://www.prairiestateblue.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4640 "Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
I actually can't speak for Indiana, except for that part that is in Chicagoland.
But Mo. sounds like they have good ground operation. Anecdotally, it sounds better than the one in IN. StL has a large African American population. The rest of Mo is pretty conservative, but it's a perverse kind of conservative. They have this stubborn independent distrustful streak. It's difficult to explain. They're a little unhinged, maybe. FWIW, my peeps are from Missouri, hardcore Irish Democrats. My grandfather worked on JFK's campaign. Mo voted for a dead person when the alternative was John Ashcroft. Harry S Truman was from Mo. Mark Twain was from Missouri. Maryb is from Mo. I have faith the Show Me state can do the right thing when they put their minds to it. "Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
Can't trust SUSA in the South. Or at least you couldn't all year. They consistently underestimated Obama's share of black folks as well as turnout among blacks and young whites. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
