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Not sure.  Could be noise, or the undecideds might simply be breaking for Obama.  McCain might be going down, but that's not clear.  Both should go up as they take their share of undecideds, barring a catastrophe on either side.  Beltway CW sez McCain gets a 70/30 split of undecideds.  I thought more like 55/45.  But right now they seem to be going almost 100% for Obama on that RCP chart.  He's just a bit more than half a point away from his largest lead ever.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:42:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
how do they justify that 70/30 split? is it people who were really decided, just didn't want to admit they were voting republican?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:48:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's people who don't pay attention mostly, and who just aren't comfortable with Obama.  Or so the pundits say.  Chris Matthews had a good rant on them after Obama's infomercial.  "He's got a great family, he's served his community, (etc).  What's it gonna take for these people to vote for a black guy?"

I never bought it, frankly, but as you know I'm not a big believer in the Bradley Effect (which is basically what the pundits were predicting).  I thought the demographics said they'd break with a slight McCain lean, but nothing incredible, and a break for Obama is hardly out of the question.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:51:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The sacrificial sheep's liver had two bumps on it.

Also during the sacrifice birds were seen flying from the East to the West.

What else does one need?

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:02:18 PM EST
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Beltway CW sez McCain gets a 70/30 split of undecideds.

No way.  Nonsense.

I'll your 55/45 Obama/McCain projection.  Obama has out hustled McCain in every single state he's entered.  That's what gets the Undecideds.

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:53:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The theory is that these are Republicans who are unhappy with their Party, but who can't bring themselves to vote for Obama or pro-lifers who like everything else about Obama.  I think mostly these people will break evenly or stay home.  

Also worth noting: undecideds sometimes, who knows how often, say they are undecided for weird personal reasons: the need for attention, the desire for people to leave them alone, the paranoia that their neighbors will find out.  They may very well know who they are voting for.

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.

by poemless on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:04:32 PM EST
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Right.  I was referring to True Undecided voters.
by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:12:09 PM EST
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No, no, my call was M55-45O on the undecideds.  Maybe 60/40.  Slight McCain lean.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:22:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In that case:

I don't agree.  

The Dems have too many structural advantages.  Or it could be put the GOP has too many disadvantages.  These  advantages and Obama's GOTV is teh awesome and something the country has never seen.  

Ever.

Could I be wrong?  Of course.  

But the ground operation is critical for getting 'your' Undecideds to the polls as, by definition, these voters are low-information, low-enthusiasm, and loosely attached to the process.  The CW is based on previous elections where the GOP had the superior ground game.

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:41:12 PM EST
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Heh.  Well, so far, you seem to be more right than me, and I'm certainly not complaining. :)

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:56:57 PM EST
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I am older, thus wiser, than you.  (and get the HECK off my lawn!  Darnitall!!!)

Stick with me kid and you'll be wearing horse poop as big as diamonds.

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:23:22 PM EST
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I am older, thus wiser, than you.

Hey, I whomped you on Iowa.  Now if you'll please toss my nerf football back into my yard, that'd be swell. ;)

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:29:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ok, here tis ---

Seriously, I've learned a lot from your posts.  Thank you.

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:44:06 PM EST
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