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Beltway CW sez McCain gets a 70/30 split of undecideds.

No way.  Nonsense.

I'll your 55/45 Obama/McCain projection.  Obama has out hustled McCain in every single state he's entered.  That's what gets the Undecideds.

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:53:14 PM EST
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The theory is that these are Republicans who are unhappy with their Party, but who can't bring themselves to vote for Obama or pro-lifers who like everything else about Obama.  I think mostly these people will break evenly or stay home.  

Also worth noting: undecideds sometimes, who knows how often, say they are undecided for weird personal reasons: the need for attention, the desire for people to leave them alone, the paranoia that their neighbors will find out.  They may very well know who they are voting for.

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.

by poemless on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:04:32 PM EST
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Right.  I was referring to True Undecided voters.
by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:12:09 PM EST
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No, no, my call was M55-45O on the undecideds.  Maybe 60/40.  Slight McCain lean.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:22:17 PM EST
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In that case:

I don't agree.  

The Dems have too many structural advantages.  Or it could be put the GOP has too many disadvantages.  These  advantages and Obama's GOTV is teh awesome and something the country has never seen.  

Ever.

Could I be wrong?  Of course.  

But the ground operation is critical for getting 'your' Undecideds to the polls as, by definition, these voters are low-information, low-enthusiasm, and loosely attached to the process.  The CW is based on previous elections where the GOP had the superior ground game.

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:41:12 PM EST
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Heh.  Well, so far, you seem to be more right than me, and I'm certainly not complaining. :)

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 02:56:57 PM EST
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I am older, thus wiser, than you.  (and get the HECK off my lawn!  Darnitall!!!)

Stick with me kid and you'll be wearing horse poop as big as diamonds.

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:23:22 PM EST
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I am older, thus wiser, than you.

Hey, I whomped you on Iowa.  Now if you'll please toss my nerf football back into my yard, that'd be swell. ;)

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:29:30 PM EST
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Ok, here tis ---

Seriously, I've learned a lot from your posts.  Thank you.

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:44:06 PM EST
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