In Missouri, Obama is doing better in the polls the few last days, equalising or pulling ahead of McCain. If IN goes Obama, MO should too, and I think by a bigger margin.
There's been less polling in North Dakota, but that polling has been better for Obama.
In Georgia, we're relying on the pollster's models to be flawed (the African American share of the electorate becoming much larger). So you have PPP out there today with a 2 point lead for McCain, which should be bridged, but SurveyUSA shows him ahead by five, which would become a stretch.
P.S. Latest Alaska poll has McCain up by 3 points. Begich up by 7 against Stevens, Berkowitz by 6 against Young.
I'll go with the landslide and give Obama ND, MT and MO as well, for 396 to 142.
If Obama wins Georgia, Martin will also win against Chambliss. So that makes 59 Senate seats. Only 1 upset needed from there.
Otherwise, the Zogby Polling Model assumes a 2004-like turn-out. Ain't gonna happen.
Okay - make that very amusing.
But it'll be the fault of the same liberal media that won it for Gore and Kerry. keep to the Fen Causeway
Indiana, on the other hand, has Illinois, Ohio, Michigan and Kentucky. Now, granted, Kentucky's as backwards and stupid as it gets, but still....
Meh, you're probably right. Missouri has Kansas City and St Louis, so it's probably more likely. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
Otherwise, going by a comparison of Missouri and Indiana on fivethirtyeight, the states are similar in a lot of ways, but MO should be slightly more friendly to the Democrats.
If Obama can re-constitute the McCaskill coalition he's got it. On the plus side, she was an early supporter (Jan. 2008) of Obama. Don't know how that is playing-out.
The M & M squad (Marek and Mary) are utterly failing in their task of keeping us informed of current happenings in Missouri. For some reason they, the slackers, are putting electing Obama as their first priority.
Here are some posts from an acquaintance who has gone to work in Mo.
http://www.prairiestateblue.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4639
http://www.prairiestateblue.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4640 "Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
I actually can't speak for Indiana, except for that part that is in Chicagoland.
But Mo. sounds like they have good ground operation. Anecdotally, it sounds better than the one in IN. StL has a large African American population. The rest of Mo is pretty conservative, but it's a perverse kind of conservative. They have this stubborn independent distrustful streak. It's difficult to explain. They're a little unhinged, maybe. FWIW, my peeps are from Missouri, hardcore Irish Democrats. My grandfather worked on JFK's campaign. Mo voted for a dead person when the alternative was John Ashcroft. Harry S Truman was from Mo. Mark Twain was from Missouri. Maryb is from Mo. I have faith the Show Me state can do the right thing when they put their minds to it. "Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
Can't trust SUSA in the South. Or at least you couldn't all year. They consistently underestimated Obama's share of black folks as well as turnout among blacks and young whites. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
