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When do we need to open the US election open thread? What's the earliest that there will be anything to talk about?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:18:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They were talking on the BBC about states like Virginia declaring midnight london time.

I'll be around till tiredness and alcohol claim me. I won't be making an effort to stay up cos there'll be more to see in the morning here.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:24:11 PM EST
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Is there a news black-out during voting? I can't recall. I seem to remember poll antics providing adequate entertainment last time around.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:26:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
not as far as I know. Tho' entertainment value will be gained from watching Justin "I back Mitt romney" Webb's impartial BBC head blow off when a filthy socialst liberal wins the presidency.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:28:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's been all McCain all the time on BBC web news. Words like 'knife edge' and 'battle ground' abound.

Buried half way down in one of the less obvious features is the fact that the black guy is polling ahead nationally and in all of the states that matter, and that - as a passing footnopte of no obvious interest or relevance - his last Ohio rallies have been getting audiences of 60-80,000.

Also amusing - no mention of the mass defections from the Repubs to Camp Obama. Or of the Obama ground game.

McCain remains relaxed and confident, obviously - much made of the fact that 'The Mac is Back.'

I hope there's someone standing by with Lysol for those exploding brains at BBC Election HQ.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:14:54 PM EST
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Hey, McCain had a whopping 1100 in Florida this morning, and I'll bet you only half were reporters. ;)

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:16:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So that's what is going on ...

Had a panic-stricken call from a German friend over the weekend worried McCain was closing within striking distance.

I assuaged his fears.

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:29:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No exit polls until polls close, state-by-state.  They'll throw a few numbers around to hint, but we won't be able to derive the predicted outcome until they give us the full set as each state closes.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:50:48 PM EST
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Put not thy trust in exit polls.

It's really hard to get a valid population for those things.

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:30:15 PM EST
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Yes, although given a half-hour to an hour, they'll be fine.  Just have to wait for them to get a beat on the early and Election-Day voters and reweight them properly.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:33:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Been through this before with you!

You just want a butt-load of Statistical data to munch, crunch, slice, and dice.

:-D

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:35:51 PM EST
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Strictly speaking, I'm a survey statistician, so...yeah, duh. :D

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:39:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No reason to hide.

"Some of my best friends ..."

LOL

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:57:11 PM EST
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Especially when so many people - mostly Dems, by a significant percentage - have voted already.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:41:36 PM EST
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That's why a lot of pundits think, even if they won't say, that it's already over.  Obama's win the early vote by crushing margins, and that's 25-30% of the electorate.  Meanwhile, he and McCain were basically splitting people who plan to vote tomorrow.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:46:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, they just can't report projections before a certain time.  

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:52:18 PM EST
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There's no blackout, but I think that the major news networks at least don't call any of the states until all have voted. Or at least until California has voted.
by asdf on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 06:19:45 PM EST
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First results are in

Obama wins in earliest vote in tiny Dixville, NH | AP

Barack Obama came up a big winner in the presidential race in Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, N.H., where tradition of having the first Election Day ballots tallied lives on.

Democrat Obama defeated Republican John McCain by a count of 15 to 6 in Dixville Notch, where a loud whoop accompanied the announcement in Tuesday's first minutes. The town of Hart's Location reported 17 votes for Obama, 10 for McCain and two for write-in Ron Paul. Independent Ralph Nader was on both towns' ballots but got no votes.

The last time a Democrat won was in 1968.
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Tue Nov 4th, 2008 at 02:51:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The first half of Indiana closes at 6.30PM on East Coast time, I think.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:46:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
6pm ET for Indianapolis.  Don't ask me how I know.  

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:47:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, you're right.  Most of it closes at 6.  SW and NW, which I suppose are the two portions in the Central Time Zone, close at 7.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:52:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How'd things go in Indiana this weekend, by the way?

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:12:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We mostly just canvassed African American areas to make sure people had voted, if not, when they were going to vote, and gave them all their polling info.

I don't think the Indy people were ready for the swarm of Chicagoans who descended upon their little town.  They were pretty unorganized in the morning; they didn't have enough walk packets ready for all the people there, but by the time we got back from our first outing, everything was running like a well oiled machine.  It was a pretty dramatic improvement.  They also had 44 staging areas in the city, which is impressive because it's a small city.  All these hotel rooms became impromptu staging locations.  In ours, there were a couple of nice old women who cooked up soul food for all the volunteers.  I guess that was their way of helping out.  That was some spicy chicken....

On the way home, we were pulled over for speeding.  LOL.  Also, we were listening to Bruce Springsteen's The Rising.  I have to say, I had one of those moments where you are jerked out of your skin and see how profound things are.  4 complete strangers, who got up before the sun to drive through the heartland to do their civic duty.  Listening to "Into the fire", realizing how historic this election was...  I got goosebumps.

Because we were canvassing Dem voters, there was positive response.  But I will add that just walking down the street, people driving past and out in their yards would see us in our Obama gear and wave, honk, shout out.  And every gas station or restaurant we stopped at, the person behind the counter wanted to talk about the election, and were supporting Obama.

He's not expected to win IN.   But it is now within the realm of possibility.  Worst case scenario, we make the GOP spend their cash defending it and a lot of people who never vote go vote.  Best case, he wins it.

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.

by poemless on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:41:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Also, it was about 80 degrees there.

It's 75 here in ChiTown today.  Crazy!!!

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.

by poemless on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:44:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nothing like the Boss, especially "The Rising," to get ya going for an election. :)

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:48:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, there's been something to talk about for the last 2 years, but if you mean when the numbers come in, I don't think the networks are allowed to go there until after 5pm ET.  That won't stop the blogosphere from starting its collective freak-out before then, however.

"Pretending that you already know the answer when you don't is not actually very helpful." ~Migeru.
by poemless on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:51:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, it usually works in this order:

The blogs will have on-location reports from people, rumors will be in abundance, Drudge will leak unweighted exit polls that will all cause either panic or exhilaration, the polls will close, and we'll finally get the true story.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:53:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We will have a nice indication early in the evening.  Indiana will either be called for McCain or Too Close to Call.  

If the latter it's going to be a mildly interesting night.

(I'm practicing my British understatement muscles.)

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:33:36 PM EST
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