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Congrats on your predictions brelow, Drew.  They are very accurate.  But doesn't obama need to reach 60% to prevent senate fili- unhh, fibrilations?  Do your stats take into account the hours-long poll taxes?  

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:19:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, we don't know if my predictions are even close to accurate, but thanks.

Barring a miracle, Obama won't get a filibuster-proof Senate.  At least not on paper.  He may throw a good-enough scare into the Reps to pull the likes of Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, etc, over on key votes.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 12:58:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And everyone in Washington will breathe a huge sigh of relief that there's no need to get too overtly challenging and progressive, and that Repub antics will remain a reliable excuse for not pushing further to the left.

Even if they got the magic sixty there would be excuses made about Blue Dogs or moon phases or whatever else they could pin the tail on.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:21:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not too terribly concerned about the Blue Dogs, honestly.  They've actually made some good noises.  They may see which way the wind is blowing and get on board.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:25:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Depends how keen the leadership is.

Would this be a good time to mention how many unanswered questions there are about what happens nex?

Iraq
Health Care
Wall St
Pakistan and Afghanistan
Legal proceedings against Bush & Cheney
Media regulation and neutrality
Renewables

Looking back in March and seeing where those stand is going to be revealing.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:32:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Iraq
Health Care
Wall St
Pakistan and Afghanistan
Legal proceedings against Bush & Cheney
Media regulation and neutrality
Renewables

Setting the legal proceedings aside for a moment, since I'm not optimistic on that (although maybe Bush fucked up badly by leaking that protected info about Obama's aunt).

None of those concern me that much, with the possible exception of health care, but I have a fair bit of confidence even on that.  The blogosphere, AARP, the unions, and all of our interest groups will be ready when the health care fight comes.

The renewables, Wall St, and media regulation will likely be fine.  Re-regulation is the dominant position now.  Deregulators are afraid to admit they're deregulators now.  The public has got religion on it.  Obama's media policies are pretty good (net neutrality, fairness doctrine, etc).

The renewables are going to be obvious and largely uncontroversial.  Detroit will bitch and moan, because Detroit is stupid and deserves to die.  But there's a consensus that things have to change on the energy front, and the recession will encourage swifter action.

Iraq will be fine.  They want us out.  We want out.  Shake hands, part ways.

I kind of think bin Laden is dead, honestly.  Everybody in DC (except McCain) knows we need to get out of Afghanistan, but nobody wants to admit to it.  I'm sure we'll be either out or on our way out within four years.  Getting a few high-profile al-Qaeda leaders and a show of stability in Afghanistan would be enough cover.  But file Afghanistan and Pakistan under "Who knows?" for now.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 03:55:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I keep finding articles like this pumping Larry Summers for the Treasury post.

Drew are you hearing about anyone else?

I'd prefer Paul Krugman but I don't think he would take the job.

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 04:12:53 PM EST
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Not really Krugman's thing.  Krugman's an international trade guy.  I've no idea if Summers is being seriously considered or if it's just chatter from the Villagers looking for a familiar face.  I'm not utterly opposed to him, but not wild about him either.  He's made some good noises on fighting wage stagnation and income inequality in the next administration.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 04:16:24 PM EST
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Also, Krugman's probably pulling down a half-mil to a mil every year with his Princeton salary, NYT salary and book sales.  Don't imagine he wants to go to Treasury for a fifth of the money for four or eight years.

Maybe Stiglitz, but he says he doesn't want to go back to DC, and I'd envision him more as chair of Economic Advisers.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 04:18:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Get Jamie Galbraith :-)

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 04:19:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Or Galbraith.  Yes, that's a possibility.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 04:31:00 PM EST
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Biggest problem is his lack of Treasury experience that would be nice or needed to fight the Bush-Clinton-Bush bureaucracy.

On the other hand, it would drive the GOP gonzo crazy.  And that is always a good thing to do.

What is needed is a Finance-Type more than an economist.  Don't know any that fit the bill.

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 04:38:36 PM EST
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A lefty finance type?

I don't know. How about Bloomberg?

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 04:40:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
H'mmmmmmmmmm.

Interesting idea.

Have to look and see when he's going to be looking for a job.  The NYC mayor is term-limited, IIRC.

Problem is he is an outsider that would be coming in to a well organized, and tight, team that's been together for 2 years.  Unless they've had discussions already ... I don't see it.

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 05:02:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So James Rubin again? Gah. More Goldman Sachs.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 05:16:00 PM EST
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Oh god!  

No.  No!  NO!

by ATinNM on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 05:17:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
he NYC mayor is term-limited, IIRC

Not any more.

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Thu Nov 6th, 2008 at 05:39:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Also, for the record, Blue Dogs are more an issue in the House than the Senate, but we're going to have such a big majority that it likely won't matter what they do.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 01:30:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What about the proposal (on electoral-vote.com, I think) to offer one of them a cabinet seat? (in the interest of bipartinsanship, of course. Not in order to flip the seat to the Democrats...)
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Mon Nov 3rd, 2008 at 04:11:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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