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The GOP has a choice to make. They've got two warring factions in the party right now.

1) Neo-liberals.  These are the people who are GOP because they have money and they want to make sure that policies favor them.  They want free trade, free markets, and no regulation.  They adore Grover Norquist.

2)The Christian Right.  These are the bible thumpers.  God, gays, and guns get them going, but they are often less reliable on the economic issues.  They tend to come from lower income groups than the neo-liberals.

I think that it's the latter group that swung this election.

First, I think that a lot of them simply didn't show up.  Second, I think that a significant number switched to Obama, the test of that would be the exit poll data.

Remember 1994.  Obama has this tendency to drift right over time, trying to drag voters with him.  Don't get me wrong, there are some very good signs coming out of the Obama administration right now.

  1. A push to go after offshore tax havens,
  2. A push to renegotiate the KORUS treaty.
  3. The promise of passing the Employee Free Choice Act, which would substantially increase union density in the US.

Now, the trick is seeing if our man Barry follows through, or if the selection of Rahm Emmanuel as chief of staff is an omen of things to come.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Nov 9th, 2008 at 08:04:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Didn't most of the bible thumper swing come from minorities?

Auferre, trucidare, rapere, falsis nominibus imperium; atque, ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Nov 9th, 2008 at 08:50:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No.

Minorities have always voted for Democrats disproportionately.

Roman Catholics are the real swing demographic.  

I haven't had the chance to look through exit polls.

School work....

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Nov 9th, 2008 at 09:09:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They voted more strongly democratic in this cycle, especially blacks and hispanics. Possibly enough to swing the election.

Also, they are becoming more numerous...

Auferre, trucidare, rapere, falsis nominibus imperium; atque, ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Nov 9th, 2008 at 09:35:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hispanics perhaps, but I fail to see how a change from  90% support for Democrats in 2004 to 98% support for Obama in 2008 was at the head of this shift.  That's something like maybe a million voters concentrated in a few states.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Nov 9th, 2008 at 09:39:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, that turned NC, and made it easier to turn Virginia, Ohio...

Auferre, trucidare, rapere, falsis nominibus imperium; atque, ubi solitudinem faciunt, pacem appellant.
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Nov 9th, 2008 at 09:41:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Made it easier in VA, but he still would've won it.  It was just the difference between a very tight win of (say) 2 points and a pretty strong win of the actual 5-6 points.

Ohio doesn't really have very many black people, so I'm not sure if it would've swung things much there.  Obama won working-class whites in Ohio and came within 6 points of the overall white vote.  So there were obviously enough black folks in Cleveland to flip it, but it really didn't require much.

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Sun Nov 9th, 2008 at 12:25:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It was a ten-point gain among blacks multiplied by a two-point gain among them as a share of the electorate.  That makes little noticeable difference in the aggregate, but that's basically more than the difference in North Carolina.

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Sun Nov 9th, 2008 at 12:21:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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