EU external relations commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner added that it was in the union's "objective interest" to resume the EU-Russia negotiations. The existing treaty is outdated and needs to be modernised on issues such as energy security, she argued.
Overextension of the European Empire is hardly Russian concern, and I don't think Russia can (or should) guarantee any resources to the freeloading New Europe.
I expect it will be a lot easier for Europe to cut its dependency on imported fossil fuels (once current insane denialist policies are ditched) that it will be for Russia to cut its dependency on exporting fossil fuels, and Europe will be forced to do it in any case, leaving Russia in a rather bigger mess.
If the past 10 years tell us anything, it is that the balance of power on fossil fuel trade can change very quickly - Russia should know that better than anyone else. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
I would also be much surprised to see Europe "cutting its dependency on imported fossil fuels" in 10 years. Reconciliation with Iran and reliance on Iranian rather than Russian fossil fuels has higher (but still in lower single digits) probability, IMHO.
I also agree that Europe will not have a policy to reduce oil&gas use unless forced by outside events - but the probability of this is increasing...
I also think that in a confrontational situation, Europe could deal with (messily) breaking the co-dependency faster than Russia, because the tools and solutions are already there, they are just not being used. I'm not sure Russia could reorient its economy away from the oil&gas rent so easily. Maybe I'm wrong. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
I'm not sure Russia could reorient its economy away from the oil&gas rent so easily. Maybe I'm wrong.
The same answer - tools and solutions are already there. And some of them actually started to be used already, such as switching to domestic sources of funds intermediated by domestic - not foreign - financial systems.
In any case, I just fail to see the wisdom of a pissing contest regarding who'd suffer the most from the break of current cooperation. If the current crisis moves Poland and Lithuania into a full-blown recession, we might see less Russophobic insanity around; it might even happen that adults will manage our relations... I'm apparently daydreaming, though.
