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So... are you arguing (putting aside the lack of an EU government for a moment) that there should have been a fiscal response instead and no change in monetary policy?
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Thu Nov 6th, 2008 at 10:06:42 AM EST
The ECB decision is not a horrible one today, and I generally support its stance so far, but it is largely powerless with today's crisis. It has done all it could and more on the liquidity front, but the problem is obviously not liquidity, but insolvency of the banks, and now it is economic recession.

The banks require wholesale recapitalisation, which is now happening belatedly, and they probably require to be taken over because right now their risk policies are as tight as they were wild before the crisis (ie they are overreacting).

The economy requires a spending boost, in the form of more money to those hardest hit or in the form of useful investment programmes in energy infrastructure, ie of the coordinated and large scale kind.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Nov 6th, 2008 at 10:30:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
(bringing back the lack of an EU government for a moment [Metatone]):

If the ECB is largely powerless with today's crisis, while the economy requires a spending boost... of the coordinated and large scale kind, is this best to be done by individual governments? Isn't there an argument here for some degree of institutional eurozone economic governance?

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Nov 6th, 2008 at 11:17:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well yes, it's a clear tenet of most analyses of the eurozone that in the long term this "zone of currency" and hence "zone of interest rates" needs to be matched with a "zone of economic governance/fiscal action" to make things work out.

However, for all the reasons we all know about, it's not an easy political project. And I wouldn't want to make plans to combat the incoming potential-depression contingent on solving the political problem of European governance.

Thus, for now I think we have to work through agreements between the individual governments...

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Thu Nov 6th, 2008 at 11:21:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But at the moment the EU Commission is taking Ireland to account for breach the Stability pact and incurring a greater than 3% budget deficit.  Is this not the exact reverse of what is actually required?

Vote McCain for war without gain
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Thu Nov 6th, 2008 at 12:06:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Thu Nov 6th, 2008 at 12:55:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ECB has been very good throughout this crisis, IMHO. For a long time, the interbank market has essentially seized, and it was the ECB who supported the life of the system.

But there are limits to what the central bank could do, as any teacher in a monetary policy class will tell you. A temporary repeal of 3% rule is in order - it might be easy to push it though right now, and some governments are clearly itching for the fiscal stimulus that seems to be needed right now.

by Sargon on Thu Nov 6th, 2008 at 02:46:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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