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NBER has officially called the recession.  Started in December 2007.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 12:37:37 PM EST
Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy entered a recession in December 2007, the panel that dates American business cycles said today.

The declaration was made by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private, nonprofit group of economists based in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The last time the U.S. was in a recession was from March through November 2001, according to NBER.



When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 12:43:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sounds about right.

The Fed and others seem to think it's going to last a year and a half to two years, so we have about six months to a year to go.

Depending on how fast they can ramp up the stimulus package, a year sounds more right to me.  Six months is simply too short.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 12:51:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
situations with old methods.  

"Hey, I've got lung cancer."

Ans: "Take some cough medicine and shut up, whiner!"

Hope I'm wrong but don't think so.

I love the smell of roast chicken in the morning!

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 02:59:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
called it at the time. I guess that it depends which end of the stick you're on.

paul spencer
by paul spencer (spencerinthegorge AT yahoo DOT com) on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 12:44:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met by conference call on Friday, November 28. The committee maintains a chronology of the beginning and ending dates (months and quarters) of U.S. recessions. The committee determined that a peak in economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in December 2007. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in November 2001 and the beginning of a recession. The expansion lasted 73 months; the previous expansion of the 1990s lasted 120 months.


When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 12:44:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I want to go out with the cute blond with the great boobs!

I love the smell of roast chicken in the morning!
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 03:01:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My immediate reaction was, "A dating committee for economists?  Oh, that sounds exciting..."

Come, my friends, 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world.
by poemless on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 03:03:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Man, I better keep my mouth shut around THIS crowd.

Can you imagine a school dance with ALL economists?

All the guys along one wall, all the gals along another.

I love the smell of roast chicken in the morning!

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 03:08:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hey, we're not all as boring as watching paint dry, and we don't all look like Paul Krugman.  It could work.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 03:17:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If you asked a straight male Economist what his favorite porn site was, his answer would be ...?

(This should be fun.)

I love the smell of roast chicken in the morning!

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 03:22:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If you asked a straight male Economist what his favorite porn site was, his answer would be ...?

Calculated Risk?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 03:25:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You know Tanta died yesterday, and all de Dkos migrants is in big, big trouble now. No one left to guide the commentators through the macro meta graphics.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
by Cat on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 03:54:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How does it happen that the DOW is currently down 600 pts. and nobody seems to give a rat's be-hind?  Why do I think the blase attitude is NOT a good thing?

I love the smell of roast chicken in the morning!
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 03:55:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The fact that we're officially in recession will be the top story.  The stock market will be secondary, even with such a big fall.  A 600-point fall a year ago would've stunned everyone.  But it hasn't been way out there for the last couple months.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 04:02:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Clusterfuck Nation.

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!
by LEP (rafifoon@yahoo.com) on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 04:07:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hadn't read that one yet, but I'll check it out.

I'd add Barry Ritholtz's Big Picture, Brad DeLong, Krugman (obviously), Atrios (when he does economics), and a few others I can't remember off the top of my head.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 04:12:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not a "feel good" site. He'll have you growing your own food soon.

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!
by LEP (rafifoon@yahoo.com) on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 04:18:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Gonna be a little tough in a studio with no yard.

Oh, that reminds me: Mr D00M Pr0n, Roubini.  (Duh.)  Just looking at Roubini's reaction to anything is enough to make you want to grow your own food.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 04:22:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Blogs that make Roubini look cheery: Clusterfuck Nation, The Automatic Earth, and Jesse's Cafe Americain.
Clusterfuck Nation comes out once a week on Monday- I havent had a chance to read today's yet. Yesterday's Automatic Earth tackles how to survive in a long period of deflation. It don't sound to easy-but you're young:-)

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!
by LEP (rafifoon@yahoo.com) on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 04:33:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I do both, lol.

When locusts move on, they leave nothing behind
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 04:33:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Or bring it up?

I love the smell of roast chicken in the morning!
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 05:12:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If you've got a windowsill, you can be a farmer.

You could also become a guerilla gardener.

<That> might be right down you alley :-))

by Loefing on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 05:32:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, guerrilla gardener perhaps, but my windowsills are only about an inch and a half wide.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 05:37:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You could grow spaghetti.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 05:38:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Spaghetti squashes would probably be a bit large...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 05:44:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was thinking bonsai spaghetti trees.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 05:46:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Keep the guerilla possibilities in mind! Individual, of course, but preferably organized.
by Loefing on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 05:48:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Naked Capitalism?!
by das monde on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 08:37:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
probably this

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 03:27:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, I can hear all of those economists huffing and puffing now.  Good call!  LOL

I love the smell of roast chicken in the morning!
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 03:53:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here: The Automatic Earth

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 04:41:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Great car.

I love the smell of roast chicken in the morning!
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 05:11:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That is pretty funny to me, because I do remember quite clearly hanging out by the wall  with future economists during college SAC-sponsored parties (youth "socialism" at work!) sipping grain-alcohol laced punch and caterwalling unseasonably tanned bimbos.

I understand how someone like Romer might not have been available for one or two FRB Friday night phone calls, explaining the EXTRAORDINARY circumstances that necessitated TDF, TAF, and PDCF "innovations." Hell, I can't keep 'em straight when I'm sober.



Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 03:28:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Obama economic team | CNNMoney | 24 Nov 2008

Obama also announced that economist Christina Romer will be director his Council of Economic Advisors, which provides economic analysis and advice to the president.

Romer, whose expertise includes the Great Depression and the economic recovery that followed, is a professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley. She is also co-director of the monetary economics program and a member of the business cycle dating committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the group that officially determines when U.S. recessions begin and end.

In Romer, Obama said, he has found an independent economist respected by both conservatives and liberals who has done "groundbreaking research on many of the topics our administration will confront, from tax policy to fighting recessions." [emphasis added]

BIO. Surely she labored with undue political pressure to moderate NBER recommendations and public advisory notices. Clinton tax era, Summers school of monetary institutions, and the Martin "Tradeable Gas Rights" Felstein era of business.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Mon Dec 1st, 2008 at 03:03:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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