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You can come up with a mean-reverting stochastic model which might superficially replicate the periods of "stable" prices. This could be extended to a model in which there are two nearby "stable" prices, in which case the stochastic model would look superficially similar to what rdf posted. You could then imagine that the position of the "stable" prices and their relative stabllity would change slowly with time. This would entail that after jumping back and forth the "square wave" would not return exactly to the previous "stable" level. Finally, you could model a the emergence of a new regime. Initially you would have just a single stable price but then a second stable point would develop and gradually become dominant. For the period where neither of the two points is dominant you would observe jumps back and forth in rdf's square wave fashion. Eventually the new regime would take over.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Dec 18th, 2008 at 11:17:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, of course.  How simple.  What was I thinking?  What?

In the end, might makes right. Nothing has changed since the caveman.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Thu Dec 18th, 2008 at 11:30:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Okay, answer me this. Do you understand rdf's top-level comment, fully?

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Dec 18th, 2008 at 11:35:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Doubt it.

In the end, might makes right. Nothing has changed since the caveman.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Thu Dec 18th, 2008 at 11:40:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So maybe you can start by enumerating the bits (jargon or full sentences, or charts) of his comment you don't understand and we'll go from there. Eventually we might get to my comment.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Dec 18th, 2008 at 11:42:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sh*t, I'm an old f*ck.  By the time we get there, my corpse will be toasting in a cremation oven.  What a warm, cozy thought.

Thanks anyway.

In the end, might makes right. Nothing has changed since the caveman.

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Thu Dec 18th, 2008 at 12:00:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My point is, if you understood rdf you would be able to ask me more than "Wud!!??"

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Dec 18th, 2008 at 12:01:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Correct.

In the end, might makes right. Nothing has changed since the caveman.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Thu Dec 18th, 2008 at 12:02:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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