TBG

that money isn't funny, it's terrifying.

Absolutely!  Seems to me the whole derivatives market is in serious need of winding down.  It has been suggested that the insurance industry concept of "insurable interest" be applied.  It is especially troubling to consider that those with great fortunes can buy derivative contracts involving defaults by mid sized countries or even large institutions and then use other of their assets to trigger such a default.  Rather like buying a life insurance policy on someone before you put out a "hit" contract on him, which is what "insurable interest" should preclude.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

It's hard to tell from the figure as it is where it started. It's not obvious whether the pre-01 tail is the tail of an exponential distribution, or it is some kind of background.

Might be funny to play a little with the axes and some log-scales, though.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.