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Brüning was facing another problem. Germany was highly indebted in foreign money and needed to stabilise its currency. He was nearly successful, when - partially due to policy mistakes of Germany - foreign countries stopped buying German federal debt.

This is very different today. It could however limit the capability of UK to make arbitrarily large fiscal expansions.

I don't know if you read my answer in the other thread about cheap money to your comment, so to give the reason for the reason of 2) Germans are chronically incapable of handling sudden slumps:
The politicians act according to learned rules, not based on an underlying economic theory. When the Sachverständigenrat was telling every year the same, it was a respected council. Now they have changed their opinion, and they are busted as flip floppers. The idea, that those economists react on a change of situation doesn't come to the mind of many.
Peter Struck, the faction leader of the SPD in the German parliament, even suggested to abolish that council. Usually one would expect some happiness, that the council finally suggests something the (equally single minded) left wing of the SPD wants all the time, so Struck could get some unity in his party, when the left wing and those who follow economic advice want the same policy. But he isn't. The rules are not allowed to change. The policy that was good yesterday has to be good tomorrow, because the world never changes.

From Herdentrieb blog:


Erst hat mich der Sachverständigenrat hoch erfreut, dass er ein anständiges Konjunkturprogramm gefordert hat - zum ersten Mal seit Mitte der 70er Jahre hat das einflussreiche Gremium zugegeben, dass es mehr als die Angebotsseite in der Wirtschaft gibt. [From the text written by Robert von Heusinger]

Vieleicht liegt das weniger an "Umdenken", sondern vielmehr daran, dass wir es zum ersten mal seit Jahrzehnten mit einer genuin keynesiansichen Unterbeschaeftigungssituation tun haben? Und differenziert denkende Oekonomen in einer keynesianischen Situation keynesianische Massnahmen empfehlen, waehrend sie einer strukturellen Unterbeschaeftigungssituation strukturelle Massnahmen fordern?

Nehmen wir die 2001-05-Episode, waehrend der Du ebenfalls beharrlich nach hoeheren Fiskalausgaben riefst. Damals hatte die deutsche Volkswirtschaft mAn ein offensichtliches Wettbewerbsproblem aufgrund des Kapitalkostenueberhangs nach der Euro-Einfuehrung, und musste den Ueberhang mittels Disinflationierung abtragen. Ausserdem hatte Eichel den Haushalt 2001 strukturell in den Sand gesetzt. Damals haette expansive Fiskalpolitik lediglich eine Verlaengerung der Wettbewerbsprobleme bedeutet und einen Haushalt, der voellig aus dem Ruder gelaufen waere, so dass heute kein Spielraum fuer fiskalische Massnahmen vorhannden waere.

Heute hingegen kann von einem Wettbewerbsproblem keine Rede sein--die Ursache fuer den Konkunktureinbruch sind offensichtlich die Implosion des Finanzsystems und das Wegbrechen der Auslandsnachfrage. Zugleich kann der Haushalt dank der disziplinierten Politik der vergangenen Jahre ein paar Prozentpunkte mehr Defizit verkraften.[comment from a reader, with whom I usually agree]



Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers
by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Tue Dec 2nd, 2008 at 12:14:07 PM EST
I did. And actually, reading this blog post, it makes even more sense, on a number of levels. It's not just the caricatural issue of hide-bound bias against inflation and for strict fiscal policy and balanced budgets; it's that a number of elements have changed, both inside and outside of the country, and the political classes aren't catching up: first that labor markets have been "reformed" and so, if there's a downturn, it's going to hurt workers more than in the past, but the folks in charge are not in the policy mindset whereby that is a given. But also, that even though they appear ot have done everything they think should have been done, if economic growth has been underpinned by exports, as Von Heusingersays seems to say at the end, and if the countries to whom those exports once went are now suffering from not just a recession but also a very near total blockage of investment, who is going to buy the capital goods which have proved Germany's export motor in the absense of domestic consumption?

I think he will prove optimistic on 2009 growth though.

Per

Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant

by redstar on Tue Dec 2nd, 2008 at 12:49:02 PM EST
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