Gazprom protests too much. The gas trade is so opaque that it is difficult to say where the dividing lines lie between politics, commerce and the personal interests of those running the business in central Asia, Russia and Ukraine. But it is clear that in this high-stakes game, Russia holds the top cards. So it is fair to assume that if Russia really wanted to take politics out of the trade it would do so.

That said, Ukraine could do much more to stabilise its end of the business. Instead of constantly casting itself as a victim of Russian bullying, it should bolster its bargaining position. First, it should pay its gas debts on time so that arrears do not, as they always do, become a weapon in Gazprom's hands. Next, it must finish the half-complete reform of the domestic market so that gas flows transparently to consumers in one direction and cash flows back, in accountable ways, in the other. Finally, Kiev, in co-operation with Moscow, must fulfil pledges to cut intermediaries out of the wholesale trade and strike a direct deal with Gazprom.