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I have (h/t to Jérôme) an interview with Todd about this. I'm tied up now, so I'll get back later.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Dec 3rd, 2008 at 10:32:12 AM EST
Here goes. It's from an interview in Le Point, with some pretty "pointy" questioning... I found there was a lot of interesting stuff, so...

Emmanuel Todd : La révolution protectionniste, actualité Débats : Le Point Elisabeth LévyEmmanuel Todd : The protectionist revolution, current affairs debates : Le Point - Elisabeth Lévy
(...) Et je sais aussi que lorsqu'une bande mêlée, de toutes les couleurs, caillasse la police, c'est que l'assimilation fonctionne, fût-ce sur un mode négatif. Les valeurs égalitaires sont toujours ancrées dans la société.(...) And I also know that when a mixed gang, of all colours, throws rocks at the police, it means assimilation works, if only in negative mode. Egalitarian values are still anchored in society.
Donc, « La Marseillaise » sifflée est l'expression d'aspirations égalitaires contrariées, tandis que l'inquiétude que cela suscite traduit le raidissement islamophobe de l'élite? So, whistling down the Marseillaise [at football matches] is the expression of frustrated egalitarian aspirations, while the concern that this creates reflects the Islamophobic stiffening of the elite?
La fascination de l'islam, l'obsession de l'islam, la fixation sur l'islam n'ont rien à voir avec la réalité de l'islam ni même avec la crise qu'il traverse en dehors de nos frontières. Elles s'expliquent par le fait que la France, pays de tradition chrétienne, vient de connaître l'ultime disparition du catholicisme. D'où une angoisse liée au vide religieux, que certains intellectuels laïques projettent sur l'islam, comme s'ils avaient besoin de ce repoussoir pour préserver leur sentiment de sécurité athée. J'aimerais que les intellectuels et les politiques français s'intéressent un peu moins à l'islam et au football, un peu plus au libre-échange et aux délocalisations qui détruisent la vie des gamins de banlieue.Fascination with Islam, the obsession with Islam, the fixation on Islam, have nothing to do with the reality of Islam nor even with the crisis it is undergoing beyond our borders. They can be explained by the fact that France, a country of Christian tradition, has just lived through the final disappearance of Catholicism. Whence anxiety linked to a religious vacuum, which some secular intellectuals project on to Islam, as if they needed this foil so as to hold on to their atheistic feeling of security. I wish French intellectuals and politicians would show a bit less interest in Islam and football, and a bit more in free trade and the offshoring that destroys the lives of kids from the banlieues.
(...)(...)
Vous opposez des séries statistiques à l'expérience concrète. Prenons votre diagnostic sur l'éducation...You place statistical series in opposition to concrete experience. Take your diagnosis on education ...
Dans mon modèle éducatif-culturel, l'émergence de la démocratie est associée à l'alphabétisation de masse et l'émergence de tendances oligarchiques à la restratification de la société par autonomisation des diplômés de l'enseignement supérieur. Et non seulement j'observe la stagnation éducative dans laquelle est entrée la France depuis 1995, mais je reconnais que nous ne savons pas s'il s'agit d'une pause ou d'un plancher de très longue durée.In my educative-cultural model, the emergence of democracy is associated with mass literacy and the emergence of oligarchic trends towards restratification of society by the empowering of higher education graduates. And not only do I observe the educational stagnation France moved into from 1995, but I recognize that we don't know if it's a pause or a long-term floor.
Vous vous imposez pourtant un devoir d'optimisme...Yet you make it your duty to be optimistic...
Je crois beaucoup plus aux données qu'aux impressions. Trente ans de fréquentation des courbes me prouvent le caractère massif, universel, de la marche en avant de l'alphabétisation, celle-ci entraînant la révolution démographique, puis, ultimement, le développement économique. En 2030, la planète entière sera alphabétisée. Bref, je vis avec le progrès. C'est ce qui me rend optimiste.I believe in data much more than in impressions. Thirty years of being around curves have proved to me the massive, universal character of the forward march of literacy, this in its turn setting off the demographic revolution, then, ultimately, economic development. In 2030, the whole planet will be literate. In short, I live with progress. That makes me optimistic.
D'où la volée de bois vert que vous passez aux « pessimistes culturels ». Or il y a quelques raisons d'être pessimiste, non ?From that comes the drubbing you inflict on the "cultural pessimists". But there are some reasons for being pessimistic, right?
Ce qui me frappe, c'est la façon dont un simple arrêt du progrès est interprété comme un déclin. Comparée à l'extraordinaire progression observée depuis la guerre, la stagnation éducative est un choc, pour les profs et pour tout le monde. Mais le pessimisme culturel est une réaction hystérisée à ce choc. Je n'observe nullement l'ignorance universelle et le prétendu illettrisme que Le Point, comme d'autres, dénonce régulièrement. Il est parfaitement vrai que, après les gosses des milieux populaires, ceux des classes moyennes sont touchés par le chômage et les bas salaires, mais le monde abruti que nous décrivent des dépressifs culturels qui idéalisent le passé, je ne le vois pas !What strikes me is the way a simple halt in progress is interpreted as decline. Compared to the extraordinary advance observed since the war, educative stagnation is a shock, for teachers and for everybody. But cultural pessimism is a hysterical reaction to this shock. I can't at all see the universal ignorance and supposed illiteracy that Le Point, like others, regularly declaim against. It is perfectly true that, after kids from lower-class backgrounds, middle-class kids are now hit by unemployment and low wages, but I don't see the moronic world described by the cultural depression sufferers who idealise the past!
L'appauvrissement du langage, la chute de l'autorité, le délitement de la transmission n'existent pas?The impoverishment of language, the decline of authority, the collapse of [cultural] transmission do not exist?
Votre obsession du déclin culturel vous fait oublier l'emballement des inégalités, le fait nouveau que les diplômés ne profitent plus du changement économique, ainsi que le retour du capital dans la vie politique et l'émergence d'une oligarchie qui ne représente pas 1 % de la société.Your obsession with cultural decline blinds you to the rapid rise of different forms of inequality, the new fact that graduates no longer get anything out of economic change, along with the return of capital to political life and the emergence of an oligarchy that does not represent even 1% of society.
(...)(...)
...Le problème fondamental de la démocratie, c'est que la classe politique refuse de mettre en question le libre-échange, ce qui mène à la baisse des revenus, à la montée des inégalités, bref à une baisse du niveau de vie pour le plus grand nombre. Et désormais à l'insuffisance de la demande, à la crise financière et à la récession. (...)
Toutefois, il existe une chance de sortir par le haut de la course dépressive de la demande et des salaires : cette solution, européenne et non nationale, c'est le protectionnisme. Mais la crise financière rapproche l'heure du choix. (...)
...The fundamental problem of democracy is that the political class refuses to question free trade, which leads to lower incomes, mounting inequality, in short to a decline in living standards for the majority. And now to insufficient demand, to the financial crisis and recession. (...)
However, there is a chance of getting out the right way from the depressive race of demand and wages: this solution, European rather than national, is protectionism. But the financial crisis brings us closer to the time to choose. (...)
Le protectionnisme est peut-être une solution pertinente, mais on dirait que, pour vous, il est la nouvelle utopie révolutionnaire. L'avenir radieux derrière des frontières? Protectionism may be a suitable solution, but it seems that for you, it is the new revolutionary utopia. The bright future behind frontiers?
C'est tout le contraire. Face à la narcissisation des comportements, l'adoption d'un protectionnisme coopératif, mis en oeuvre au niveau d'un collectif supranational, délivré de tout mythe fondateur ethnique ou étatique, montrerait que nous sommes passés à un état supérieur de la conscience humaine et du développement historique.Quite the contrary. Faced with the narcissisation of behaviours, the adoption of cooperative protectionism, implemented at a collective supranational level, free from any ethnic or State founding myth, would demonstrate that have moved up to a higher state of human consciousness and of historical development.

Reactionary? Pessimistic? I'm not sure that's quite it.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Dec 4th, 2008 at 10:39:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
afew, thanks for this.  a very enlightening interview.

while it's encouraging that Todd remains doggedly optimistic, i get the sense that, as the journalist puts it, he assumes it as a duty -- i.e. it is an optimism of the head, but not one he feels in his heart (dare i say gut?).  but then again, this appears to be in the same spirit as his statement:

I believe in data much more than in impressions.

as for his advocacy of cooperative protectionism, that is a very catchy name (though neoliberals might consider it somewhat "orwellian") and makes it sound like Economic Fortress Europe can do very well on its own, thank you very much, and does not really need to maintain current levels of trade with the rest of the world.  is that realistic?

the ideals he describes here --

implemented at a collective supranational level, free from any ethnic or State founding myth, would demonstrate that have moved up to a higher state of human consciousness and of historical development.

-- are almost exactly what i had in my reply to melo above.

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Thu Dec 4th, 2008 at 10:19:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree with you on his optimism. He seems conflicted throughout the interview on this. Yet I think we can fairly take his assessment that a halt on the road of progress is not irreversible decline (even if it's not clear how to get moving again!) as his position.

On protectionism, I suppose we'd need to read his book to see what he says in more detail. Here he's simply asserting that it's the right thing to do. How realistic it is would depend on how much protectionism and how articulated, I suspect. I take as more important his attack on "free trade" and (symbolized by that old but obvious code word) neoliberal economics as the root of the break-up of society and the risk to democracy.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Dec 5th, 2008 at 01:21:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
(Appologies to Richard Strauss)
Faced with the narcissisation of behaviours, the adoption of cooperative protectionism, implemented at a collective supranational level, free from any ethnic or State founding myth, would demonstrate that have moved up to a higher state of human consciousness and of historical development.
Has anyone read After Democracy?  If so, does he make the above point in the book or as an afterthought?

Much of what he describes are the juxtaposition of the bright and dark sides of Modernity, what Karl Polanyi described as The Great Transformation.  The market society is the epitome of modernity, at least in ideals:  position determined by ability vs. birth; policy based on reason vs. tradition; universal vs. particular values; etc.  

But market capitalism has become an inhuman monster.  Introducing market capitalism into a traditional society is like dropping an intact tree into a stumper.  Atomization. Does anyone want to live in a society in which the single value of Return on Equity outweighs all other values combined?  How do we humanize this system so that due care is given to the needs of sentient beings?

Todd's observations are hardly new.  Polanyi wrote in the '40s.  He has described a destination but what about a path from here to there?  

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Dec 5th, 2008 at 12:16:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There is a good point to be made about modernity; I'd insist more on the technological evolutions that made possible (and now unavoidable) all those model simulations, polls, internet, continuous news, instantaneous movement of capital... Too much, too detailed, too close, leads to atomisation the same way people living in metropoles tend to isolate themselves.

Wouldn't that rather be financial capitalism, btw ?


Free at last! Free at last! Thank God Almighty, we are free at last! (Martin Luther King)

by ValentinD (walentijn arobase free spot frança) on Fri Dec 5th, 2008 at 07:56:05 PM EST
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