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Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Wed Jan 7th, 2009 at 03:04:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
EUobserver

EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS - Ukraine's integration process with the EU could be harmed by the gas crisis the European Commission has indicated, as European firms begin wondering how to get their money back.

"Ukraine says it wants to be closer to the EU. If it wants to be closer, it should not create any problems when it comes to EU energy supplies," European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said at a press conference in Prague on Wednesday (7 January).

Ukraine has a 22,000 km-long transit network

The remark came after his telephone conversations with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Ukraine Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko earlier the same day failed to clarify why Russian gas flows to the EU via Ukraine halted completely on Wednesday morning.

"If both the Russians and the Ukrainians behave as they say they are behaving, there should be no problem," the commission chief said.

Russia has blamed Ukraine for the stoppage, saying Kiev shut down compressor stations channeling volumes to the EU, amid a week-old row over gas prices and debt repayments. But Ukraine says Russia simply stopped pumping gas at 7.00 am Kiev time.



Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Wed Jan 7th, 2009 at 03:04:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What is Russia's end-game in gas row? | Reuters

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin raised the stakes in his gas conflict with Ukraine by slashing supplies to Europe, a measure that has left some EU states struggling to heat homes in sub-zero temperatures.

Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom said it was forced to take that step because Ukraine -- locked in a dispute with Moscow over gas pricing -- was stealing gas being pumped across its territory for customers in Europe.

What was Putin seeking to achieve by reacting in this way? There is so far no consensus among diplomats and analysts about what Russia's end-game is. The following are the main theories:

RUSSIA HAS NO END-GAME

The Kremlin started out with the modest aim of persuading Ukraine to pay closer to market prices for its gas, but has now been out-manoeuvred by Kiev.

"Russia and Gazprom have walked into a trap," said Fyodr Lukyanov, editor of the journal Russia in Global Affairs.



Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Wed Jan 7th, 2009 at 03:08:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
EU Warns Rowing Gas Powers of Long Term Consequences | Europe | Deutsche Welle | 07.01.2009
The EU warns Russia and Ukraine that they face long-term consequences unless they immediately resolve a dispute that has cut gas supplies to Europe and left some countries struggling to heat up homes over the winter.

"If the transit (of Russian gas through Ukraine) does not go as normal, we will have a real problem", and the EU will have to conclude that "we no longer consider the supply of gas from Russia through Ukraine as credible," said European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso.

 

Barroso, who was speaking in Prague at the launch of the Czech presidency of the bloc, said both Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko had accepted an EU offer to deploy international observers tasked with monitoring Russian gas flows through Ukraine.



Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Wed Jan 7th, 2009 at 03:09:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Russia-Ukraine gas crisis intensifies as all European supplies cut off | Business | guardian.co.uk

Gazprom, the state-owned Russian gas group, today cut off all supplies to Europe travelling through Ukrainian pipelines, intensifying the political and economic crisis that has arisen out of a payments dispute between the two countries.

Amid evidence that people in eastern Europe are being deprived of heating as the Arctic cold snap continues, Russia and Ukraine continued to blame each other for the deadlock.

Gazprom accused Ukraine of shutting down the fourth and last open pipeline crossing the country while officials at Naftogaz, Ukraine's state energy firm, simply said: "Words fail us."



Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Wed Jan 7th, 2009 at 03:12:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
New cold war in Europe as Russia turns off gas supplies - Europe, World - The Independent

Fears of a deep chill spread across Europe yesterday after a row between Russia and Ukraine over gas prices cut supplies to the rest of the continent on a day of plummeting temperatures and heavy snowfalls.

The European Union said the situation was "completely unacceptable" as thousands of businesses were urged to switch fuels, and households struggled to keep warm in sub-zero temperatures. But there was no sign of an end to the standoff between Russia's energy monopoly Gazprom and Ukraine, locked in battle since New Year's Day.



Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Wed Jan 7th, 2009 at 03:14:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC NEWS | World | Europe | Dispute hits Europe gas supplies

Exports of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine appear to have completely stopped amid a dispute over gas supplies between the two countries.

Heating systems shut down in some parts of central Europe, as outdoor temperatures plunged to -10C or lower.

Russia and Ukraine have blamed each other, and the EU says it wants its own monitors to check the flow of gas.

The EU depends on Russia for about a quarter of its total gas supplies, some 80% of which is pumped through Ukraine.



Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Wed Jan 7th, 2009 at 03:18:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Do we have reliable reports of end-users heating shutdowns?

"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Wed Jan 7th, 2009 at 04:28:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have read that schools have been closed in a couple of countries (Slovakia, Bulgaria?) - that's mostly government PR, I'd say - and heard on the radio that Peugeot was going to close its factory today (but then gas may be just a convenient excuse given that state of the industry)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 8th, 2009 at 05:16:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... And may be linked to a raise in the price of gas rather than an actual absence of gas. If you're going to stop the factor for a few weeks, doing it when gas is expensive is a sensible decision...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Thu Jan 8th, 2009 at 05:32:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Checking bulgarian english language news there are reports of some parts of sofia having no heating. hospitals and schools are closing as well.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Jan 8th, 2009 at 06:29:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Does Bulgaria not have storage facilities in their gas network?

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 8th, 2009 at 06:43:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
XInhua: Bulgaria can live on gas shortage regime for 100 days: president (2009-01-08)
Bulgaria faces no austerity measures in electricity consumption, and no termination of central heating, and its economy could function for up to 100 days on the country's reserves, Bulgarian President Georgi Parvanov announced Wednesday.

...

In the president's words, the only effect of the gas shortage that most Bulgarians would feel was slight reduction in the amount of heat they received from the central heating plants.

In the medium run, Parvanov mentioned some other measures to provide for Bulgaria's energy security including the expansion of the Chiren storage facility, and more importantly, building a 70-kilometers long gas transit pipeline between the Bulgarian city of Dimitrovgrad and the Greek town of Komotini, with which Bulgaria would join the Turkey-Greece-Italy pipeline.

Also Xinhua: PM: Romania capable of coping with gas supply for winter (2009-01-08)
Romania has enough of its own natural gas stocks and production to manage despite the cut-off of its Russian gas supplies, Prime Minister Emil Boc said Wednesday.

Boc made the statement after discussing the natural gas crisis with President Traian Basescu. He said that they agreed that Romania has to look for alternative energy resources so as to avoid similar problems in the future.

...

Boc said that with current stocks, Romania is capable of supplying enough gas for heating in the winter as long as there is no extreme weather.



Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 8th, 2009 at 06:47:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Cool Migeru...getting the real specifics.

I almost feel like this is data that should be disseminated broadly. But how exactly does spreading actual true information help in the "fear uncertainty and doubt" phase of the game?

Never underestimate their intelligence, always underestimate their knowledge.

Frank Delaney ~ Ireland

by siegestate (siegestate or beyondwarispeace.com) on Thu Jan 8th, 2009 at 07:34:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Russian gas crisis to keep bills high as firms divert UK stocks | Business | The Guardian

Britain now exporting supplies to Europe through pipeline as shortages spread

<...> Despite freezing temperatures and rising demand in Britain, traders switched from importing to exporting gas through an interconnector pipeline to continental Europe as a growing row between Russia and Ukraine left many countries short of supplies.

British wholesale prices have leapt in recent days due to the crisis, leading to warnings that UK householders could be denied long-awaited cuts in fuel prices. The price of gas hit 73p a therm - up 26% in three days.

Government sources warned UK energy companies not to use the Ukraine crisis as an excuse to delay passing on the benefits of otherwise lower world energy prices. One senior Whitehall figure said: "We would expect the energy companies to be responsible and not use this dispute as an excuse to hold off on the price reductions they have talked about which customers are expecting in the spring."

<...>

The crisis will reignite concerns that the UK has left itself open to exploitation by foreign companies who came in and bought up major UK utilities leaving British Gas as one of the few locally owned entities. EDF of France and E.ON and RWE of Germany are among the continental groups that dominate the sector.

There was particular concern that the huge foreign-owned utilities that dominate power supply in the UK are putting their continental customers ahead of UK energy users, although they denied this.

These companies - some of which have part-government ownership - have used a free market to buy British assets in a way that is considered unlikely to occur on mainland Europe. They are also able to use the more liberalised gas market to fill up their storage facilities during the summer and autumn.

"Even in winter, if they can get hold of UK gas via the interconnector they will use that instead of dipping into their storage facilities. By contrast, UK players can't access gas from the European market as there is no liquid market to buy from ... also there is no third party access to European gas storage facilities, again in contrast to the UK," said one frustrated British gas trader.

The conclusion of this whine is perhaps that the British, after happily helping to support a "dazzling economy" for years by exporting North Sea gas, now wish for an end to free markets and a return to state control?

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Jan 8th, 2009 at 02:15:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I keep on reading in the Economist that market liberalisation is good even if others outside don't do it for themselves.

In this case, UK gas owners get a higher price for their gas on the continent than they would selling in the UK: surely that is a good thing for them. And UK gas users presumably get cheaper gas than they would on the continent the rest of the time, thanks to liberalisation. So where's the problem?

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 8th, 2009 at 05:23:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So where's the problem?
The damn winter doesn't understand the theory of comparative advantage?

--
$E(X_t|F_s) = X_s,\quad t > s$
by martingale on Thu Jan 8th, 2009 at 05:36:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
People freezing to death IS a market solution: it reduces demand.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 8th, 2009 at 06:41:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The market can only bring good outcomes. Don't you know anything??
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 8th, 2009 at 06:46:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A solution on the boundary of the feasible set? Holy moly, that's probably not even differentiable! Savages!

--
$E(X_t|F_s) = X_s,\quad t > s$
by martingale on Thu Jan 8th, 2009 at 06:52:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Associated Press: Gazprom's CEO holds talks with Naftogaz's Dubina

MOSCOW (AP) -- The heads of the Russian and Ukrainian gas companies have held an unexpected meeting in Moscow to discuss the dispute that has caused an energy crisis in Europe.

Both companies confirmed they met early Thursday but released no details. It was the first face-to-face meeting between Gazprom's Alexei Miller and Naftogaz's Oleh Dubina since talks over prices broke down New Year's Eve.

The meeting was unexpected because both men are due in Brussels Thursday to meet with EU officials.

Sargon tells us this meeting was in the middle of the night.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Jan 8th, 2009 at 07:31:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
given that they both flew to Brussels for a joint meeting with the EU this morning...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 8th, 2009 at 07:59:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Interesting to be a fly on the wall at the midnight meeting?
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Jan 8th, 2009 at 10:29:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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