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ECONOMY & FINANCE
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 13th, 2009 at 02:20:03 PM EST
Spain receives downgrading warning from ratings agency - EUobserver

Spain became the third Eurozone country to receive a warning from ratings agency Standard & Poor's on Monday (12 January) in a further sign of Europe's economic malaise.

Last Friday, both Ireland and Greece also received warnings from the ratings agency, a development that threatens to make government borrowing for the three states more expensive at a time when governments are increasingly turning to money markets to bolster diminishing tax returns.

Spain became the third Eurozone state Monday to receive a credit warning about it national finances

The Financial Times reports that other countries could also see themselves subject to similar warnings in the coming days or weeks as countries take on record debt levels, in part caused by new spending programmes intended to counteract the ongoing economic crisis.

Italy, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 104 per cent is seen as particularly vulnerable. So too Portugal, which is currently running a current account deficit of 12 per cent.

Figures announced last week show Spain's industrial output for November to be down 15.1 per cent on the previous year, the biggest fall on record.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 13th, 2009 at 02:21:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Spain actually had a budget surplus coming into the summer. Funny how nobody talks about downgrading the US or the UK (except when the topic is the supposed long term bankruptcy of social systems like public pensions, of course)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Jan 13th, 2009 at 03:52:33 PM EST
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Given that S&P (and Moody's, and Fitch) has been shown not to know how to rate a subprime mortgage CDO2, why can we assume it knows how to rate a country?

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 13th, 2009 at 04:10:54 PM EST
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You have to suspect the eventually some whistleblower will come forward and explain how much political influence there is in the process of American ratings agencies rating foreign countries. It's too useful a tool not to have been used.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Jan 14th, 2009 at 05:37:24 AM EST
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That whistle blower will get hit by a bus for sure.
by paving on Wed Jan 14th, 2009 at 02:44:08 PM EST
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No Credit: A Chill Blows through Wind Power - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International
The financial crisis has hit the wind power industry hard as credit has dried up. Will government spending provide the needed stimulus?

The green energy sector has a lot riding on 2009. Policymakers from Washington to Beijing have pledged billions of dollars in "cleantech" investment to jump-start the depressed global economy and create millions of new low-carbon jobs.

Wind power is losing steam. That should be a boon to the wind power industry, which is working to harness the world's second-largest source of renewable energy after hydroelectric. As with the solar industry, wind power has been hit by a sudden slowdown in private sector investment as credit has dried up and the price of oil has fallen from its mid-2008 high. The industry hopes public spending will help fill the gap until the global economy gets back on its feet.

The multibillion-dollar stimulus packages are particularly important for Europe, which remains the largest wind energy market worldwide and is home to six of the world's top 10 wind turbine manufacturers. Despite the Continent's dominant position, companies ranging from Denmark's Vestas, the global leader in turbines, to Spain's Iberdrola, the world's largest developer of wind farms, have been forced to cut back to meet the new economic realities.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 13th, 2009 at 02:26:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the real short term reason for the retranchement is the inability of the US Congress to renew the PTC* early enough (it was finally included in the Paulson bailout late last year).

That means that companies with ready projects rushed to have them built before the end of 2008, and those who could not make that deadline waited until th PTC were reinstated to get re-started, which means, even if there hadn't been a financial crisis, that very little would have been built in the US in the first half of 2009.

The PTC is the production tax credit: it's a tax credit of 2c/kWh payable to renewable energy producers for 10 years if the project is built in the period of application; the law on PTC extends the period of application by one year or two each year; each time these extentions took place too late for projects of the following year to be launched in time, construction collapsed

With the US building something like 6-7,000MW of wind in 2008, a collapse from that is not easy on the industry...

Financial difficulties are going to make the restart harder in the US, that's true.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Jan 13th, 2009 at 03:58:06 PM EST
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Not sure I follow on this one.  In the previous three expirations, the PTC wasn't rebooted until late in the following year (as I recall), so would have a direct effect on that year's installations.  This time 2008 should not be affected by the PTC, with perhaps only some marginal but planned projects not getting financed in Q4 '08.  But the PTC is fully in place before the end of '08 this time, so projects should be able to go forward full tilt as concerns the PTC for '09.

The question then becomes whether a downturn or slower growth in '09 is caused by the meltdown drying up funding or not.  The PTC is there in full force, it's only a question of whether there's equity and debt available.

In other words, i see the meltdown as having a far greater effect on '09 (though only potentially) than the PTC.  More importantly the meltdown affects project finance globally, where the PTC only affects the (large) US sector.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Jan 13th, 2009 at 04:25:05 PM EST
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It's only in 2004 that the PTC was reinstated only in 2004, retroactively for projects built in the early part of the year (not many). In 2000 and 2002, the PTC, just like this year, was reinstated late in the year before.

2008 is a great year for US wind; 2009 will be a very bad year, and would have been even without the financial crisis.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Jan 13th, 2009 at 05:00:17 PM EST
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Agree about the history, but don't you think the US side of the industry is a complete evolution from 2002 & 2004?  Especially the finance component of the industry has evolved greatly, but also on the project development side.  All reasonable players have been crunching pro formas for their sites for years, and up-leveling their resource data and siting plans.  Turbines in frame agreements have been on order, and initial payments are still being made.

IF 2009 is a down year for US wind, or as you say a "very bad year," wouldn't that be strictly attributed to financial conditions, with very little to do with the PTC.

Don't forget that the PTC can now be directly taken by utilities, no small matter, and there is movement in congress to allow other incentives.

Have your discussions with colleagues shown that the PTC is affecting 2009?  I thought most experienced banks were looking forward to financing 2009 projects, with 25 -50 basis points higher fees?

of course, if the US went to a feed-in tariff, that would be too sensible.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Wed Jan 14th, 2009 at 03:08:21 AM EST
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If only we had some sort of large fund that could be used specifically for projects to jumpstart the new green economy...
by paving on Tue Jan 13th, 2009 at 07:25:23 PM EST
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Aftermath of Part-Nationalization: Berlin Wants Commerzbank to Kick-Start Stalled Lending - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

The German government's partial nationalization of Commerzbank reflects the severity of the financial crisis. Berlin wants to use Commerzbank to jump-start stalled bank lending to companies, but it's paying a high price to do so.

It's a proud building with a height of 259 meters -- 300 meters including the antenna --making it the highest skyscraper in Germany and the third-highest in Europe. It was designed by Sir Norman Foster, the star architect. This building exudes the ambition of a company that wants to display its wealth and its power, and that wants to play in the big league.

 Commerzbank opted to take help from Berlin. But things have gone wrong for Commerzbank. Its proud tower is about to become the tallest branch of the federal government since last week's announcement that it will be partially nationalized.

Berlin is taking a €10 billion stake in Commerzbank, an investment that will it direct influence in the business operations and structure of a major German commercial bank. The government will also become the guarantor of the planned merger between Commerzbank and Dresdner Bank, acquired by Commerzbank in a deal arranged last year.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 13th, 2009 at 02:32:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Help for Europe's Biggest Economy: Germany Seals 50 Billion Euro Stimulus Plan - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

Germany's governing coalition has agreed on the details of the country's biggest economic stimulus package since World War II, worth a total of 50 billion euros. But critics say it won't be enough to combat recession.

Germany's ruling political parties agreed on a two-year €50 billion stimulus plan, the biggest since World War II, at a meeting on Monday night to help Europe's largest economy weather the financial and economic crisis.

Representatives of Germany's governing coalition met in the Chancellery and consulted late into Monday evening on the new stimulus package. The plan envisages €18 billion of new investment in the construction and repair of roads and the rail network and of schools and universities. Some of the money will also be used for faster Internet communication networks.

Taxes are also being cut, with the tax threshold being raised to €8,004 from €7,664, and the entry rate of tax will be lowered to 14 percent from 15 percent on July 1.

The German system of "cold progression," under which taxpayers are shifted into higher tax brackets even when real incomes have not grown, is also going to be changed, thus bringing tax relief. Under the current system, the tax brackets aren't adjusted for inflation.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 13th, 2009 at 02:41:31 PM EST
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Merkel Warns Obama Over Support for Automotive Big Three | Germany | Deutsche Welle | 14.01.2009
With carmakers all over the world hurting, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said she will confront US President-Elect Barack Obama over Washington's automotive aid package. But is the pot calling the kettle black?

Merkel's remarks came as her governing Conservative-Social Democratic coalition announced a massive 50-billion-euro ($66.2 billion) economic stimulus plan.

"Of course, we won't be able to just stand by and watch how the American automotive industry is kept alive by billions of dollars," Merkel told reporters in Berlin on Tuesday, January 13.

[...]

Merkel has said that carmarker Opel, the European wing of General Motors, could get up to 1.6 billion euros ($2.1 billion) in loan guarantees to help the company survive the economic downswing.

The German government has also waived taxes on new car purchases for 2009 and offered a 2500 euro premium for drivers who scrap cars more than 10 years old, if they purchase new vehicles.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Jan 14th, 2009 at 04:23:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bloomberg.com: Worldwide
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke warned that a fiscal stimulus won't be enough to spur an economic recovery and that the government may need to buy or guarantee banks' tainted assets to revive growth.

"Fiscal actions are unlikely to promote a lasting recovery unless they are accompanied by strong measures to further stabilize and strengthen the financial system," Bernanke said in a speech today at the London School of Economics. "More capital injections and guarantees may become necessary to ensure stability and the normalization of credit markets."

Bernanke's remarks indicate he may be seeking to influence deliberations among lawmakers and President-elect Barack Obama's economic aides on how to deploy the next $350 billion of the financial-rescue fund approved in October. While some Democrats have focused on offering aid to troubled homeowners, the Fed chief's comments show he's more concerned about a continued choking off of credit to companies and households.



"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Tue Jan 13th, 2009 at 07:02:56 PM EST
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Bloomberg.com: Worldwide
Hedge funds lost $350 billion globally in 2008, the most on record, as the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression crippled returns and caused investors to pull money out, according to an industry report.

The hedge-fund industry shrank by about a fifth to $1.5 trillion at the end of the year from a peak of $1.9 trillion, Eurekahedge said. Funds including Citadel Investment Group LLC suffered investment losses and client withdrawals. Some funds were forced to sell assets at fire-sale prices as the credit crisis forced banks that lent money to hedge funds to withdraw their loans.



"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Tue Jan 13th, 2009 at 07:06:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Harold Meyerson - Obama and the Money-Changers - washingtonpost.com

As Barack Obama looks back to Franklin Roosevelt's first inaugural address -- the only other such address that came smack in the middle of an economic meltdown -- I hope he pays special heed to Roosevelt's words on America's bankers, who then as now had plunged the nation into an economic abyss.

"The money-changers have fled from their high seats in the temple of our civilization," Roosevelt proclaimed. "We may now restore that temple to ancient truths."



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Jan 14th, 2009 at 04:14:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Britain loses faith in economy | Business | The Guardian

British economic confidence has been shattered by the financial crisis, according to a unique international poll published today. It shows that people here are now less likely to trust banks, the stockmarket or the government's economic management than people in comparable nations.

The research, carried out by WIN, an international network of pollsters including ICM in Britain, used professional polling techniques to assess public opinion in 17 countries, including the major G8 economies as well as China and India.

On most measures, British people emerged as among the most pessimistic of the 14,555 people questioned around the world.

Remarkably, confidence in the banking system appears lower in Britain - 4.2 out of 10 - than in bankrupt Iceland, which polled 4.6.

While around a third of citizens in developing economies such as India and China say the economic situation in their countries could improve in coming months, more than three-quarters of people in Britain expect it to worsen.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Jan 14th, 2009 at 04:24:32 AM EST
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Remarkably, confidence in the banking system appears lower in Britain - 4.2 out of 10 - than in bankrupt Iceland, which polled 4.6.

Why is that remarkable? Once you're bankrupt things can only get better.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jan 14th, 2009 at 04:26:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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