The question then becomes whether a downturn or slower growth in '09 is caused by the meltdown drying up funding or not. The PTC is there in full force, it's only a question of whether there's equity and debt available.
In other words, i see the meltdown as having a far greater effect on '09 (though only potentially) than the PTC. More importantly the meltdown affects project finance globally, where the PTC only affects the (large) US sector. "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
2008 is a great year for US wind; 2009 will be a very bad year, and would have been even without the financial crisis. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
IF 2009 is a down year for US wind, or as you say a "very bad year," wouldn't that be strictly attributed to financial conditions, with very little to do with the PTC.
Don't forget that the PTC can now be directly taken by utilities, no small matter, and there is movement in congress to allow other incentives.
Have your discussions with colleagues shown that the PTC is affecting 2009? I thought most experienced banks were looking forward to financing 2009 projects, with 25 -50 basis points higher fees?
of course, if the US went to a feed-in tariff, that would be too sensible. "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
