Agree about the history, but don't you think the US side of the industry is a complete evolution from 2002 & 2004?  Especially the finance component of the industry has evolved greatly, but also on the project development side.  All reasonable players have been crunching pro formas for their sites for years, and up-leveling their resource data and siting plans.  Turbines in frame agreements have been on order, and initial payments are still being made.

IF 2009 is a down year for US wind, or as you say a "very bad year," wouldn't that be strictly attributed to financial conditions, with very little to do with the PTC.

Don't forget that the PTC can now be directly taken by utilities, no small matter, and there is movement in congress to allow other incentives.

Have your discussions with colleagues shown that the PTC is affecting 2009?  I thought most experienced banks were looking forward to financing 2009 projects, with 25 -50 basis points higher fees?

of course, if the US went to a feed-in tariff, that would be too sensible.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin