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inflation math for me on this? I don't see it. I know it's an idee recue that government spending causes inflation, one often voiced by the Financial Times (of all places!) but that doesn't make it true.

Assume public investments undertaken pay back at roughly a 4% discount rate.

And, for the sake of the argument, you can ignore the currently moderately high risk of deflation if you do nothing.

Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant

by redstar on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 09:17:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
increasing the money supply faster than underlying economic activify creates inflation. All forms of debt increase the money supply.

If debt is used to fund investment, then usually the accompanying increase in economic activity makes it possible for no inflation to appear. If debt is used to fund consumption, then you will have inflation (of the asset price kind if wages and prices are constrained by other factors like brnging in China's workers in the equation).

So it is less unreasonable to argue for a debt-fuelled investment package by government, as opposed to a pure stimulus (giving money to households for them to consume). But that's not really what we're talking about here, is it? It's certainly not what Brown and Sarkozy are pushing, and which redstar is defending so ardently.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 11:34:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Please show where I defend Sarkozy's stimulus plan. This is simply bad faith on your part, I've been very clear and consistent on my preferences: investments in educational and transportation infrastucture, green energy, public housing. The current nobel prize winner in economics, curiously, holds the same view.

Enough of this. This is bullshit. It's your blog. I'll go build me own.

Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant

by redstar on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 11:48:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the debate was whether Steinbruck was right to say that there was no need to rush towards a plan like Brown and Sarkozy were doing, and that it was in particular dangerous to have plans purely based on debt.

I supported Steinbruck's specific point that debt was dangerous today and you said that my Germanic (now Hooverian) obsession with balanced budgets was misguided in view of the tsunami coming towards workers in Europe.

We've been talking past one another ever since.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 11:55:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You dishonor your own arguments by giving vent to such frustration.  Your perspective is way too valuable to fall into this ego trap.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 11:56:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not an ego trap.

On more than one occasion it's been made clear to me that my perspective is far out of the mainstream of accepted views here, this is another ongoing one.

I don't mean to be supercilious or anything about this, really I don't. It's just pretty clear this is not a particularly fruitful debate. On this and many other subjects we are talking past another. I'd rather go and be productive elsewhere.

Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant

by redstar on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 12:07:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't you get how productive you are here?  A real solution will come from the synthesis of careful deconstruction of arguments all over the board.  So what if it sometimes gets like a sandbox argument of 6 year olds.  That's how the process works these days.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 12:14:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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