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I have to tell you, Jerome: I think some of this is Hooverism.  I agree that throwing money into tax cuts for this or that group is, indeed, placing too much emphasis on the consumption side, but a large stimulus package putting resources into productive assets -- rail, schools, sewers, etc -- is an investment to further productivity down the road.

And it's not overwhelmingly inflationary in the context of an economy operating below full capacity and subject to strong deflationary pressures, as you well know -- again, if we're talking about productive assets.  Some inflation down the road, of course, but that's not an altogether bad thing.  It's part of the point.

Now, should taxes rise on the wealthy?  Yes.  But if you simply raise taxes by the amount of the stimulus, it's not a stimulus.  The net effect is zero or near-zero.  More progressive taxation is a general policy goal.  It doesn't have much to do with the ins and outs of a stimulus package.  It's more of a "Hey, while we're at it, let's rebalance the tax burden while we have political capital" kind of thing.

Operating under normal conditions or in the case of a mild recession, I'd agree with your view that fiscal prudence should be the priority.  Maybe loosen a bit, but leave most of the heavy lifting to the central bank.  That's not what this is, though.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 12:48:25 PM EST
But moving the tax system to take more from the rich and less from the poor is not a zero-sum game as they do not consume the same proportion of their incomes and do not use it for the same kinds of goods and services.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 03:45:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
True.  Higher propensity to consume.  That's what I meant about near-zero, because I don't think the propensity is quite as high as we'd hope among those who are employed, regardless of income level.  Which is why I think you have to handle the recession with public works, putting the money in the hands of people who are going to spend all, or nearly all, of it and restoring some sense of normalcy.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Mon Jan 5th, 2009 at 02:34:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But if you simply raise taxes by the amount of the stimulus, it's not a stimulus.
People tell me that the poor are wont to spend while the rich rather save, which means a zero-sum redistribution can be a stimulus. Or so I'm told.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Thu Jan 1st, 2009 at 03:55:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But surely we're talking about the structural deficit here, right? That is, the deficit we would have if the economy were at full employment.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Jan 2nd, 2009 at 06:11:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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