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If one is sufficiently evil, amongst your goals number three is by far the easiest.  We have the means, ready to be deployed overnight, to immediately carry out rapid population reductions in a targeted, yet thorough fashion.  For whatever reason, though, most people don't seem too enthused with the idea.

While I agree with you on reducing consumption and using education and subsidies to deal with the population growth brought about by poverty, I'm not sure one will ever manage to encourage voluntary, long-term population decline.

Further, as it is often the careerist drive to accomplish and succeed that leads Westerners to control their fertility, often to the desired below-replacement levels, than reducing consumption and in turn reducing the focus on accomplishment and accumulation may well run counter to your stated population goals.

by Zwackus on Fri Dec 5th, 2008 at 05:39:15 PM EST
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We have the means...to immediately carry out rapid population reductions in a targeted, yet thorough fashion.  For whatever reason, though, most people don't seem too enthused with the idea.
Some want the result, are willing to accept the means, but don't want to go down in history as monsters.  So such rapid, targeted population reductions will be the result of "situations that got out of hand before the international community had the time to react" or some such.  This is what happened in Rwanda in a low tech operation.  Clinton regrets not having done more, but, in truth, he was dealing with a hostile congress that did not want him to be seen as bringing off a humanitarian coup by application of effective military force and other possible actors had their own agendas and inhibitions.

There seem to be a number of "leaders" perfectly willing to play the monster if they are not stopped.  And there is no shortage of others, with cleaner hands, who will find themselves unable to act effectively in a timely manner, as in Darfur.  Another problem is governments that effectively committ slow rolling genocide against their own population, as with North Korea or Burma.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Dec 6th, 2008 at 06:22:27 PM EST
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Once again, because it's apparently necessary to point this out.

And for good measure:

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sat Dec 6th, 2008 at 07:41:58 PM EST
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... but its evidently not Rwanda that is the example, nor having a kleptocracy collapse into civil war next door in the DRC, or hosting a three decade long war in Afghanistan ..

... it would seem that the low technology reduction would be more further east in the Eurasian continent, in that country that looks like a Chicken and which is progressing rapidly through a demographic transition.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sat Dec 6th, 2008 at 10:02:07 PM EST
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Thanks, nanne.  Very informative graph and map.  One conclusion seems to be that chaos begets fecundity.  So we have a rationale even more compelling than morality alone.  

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Dec 7th, 2008 at 12:58:42 PM EST
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Yes, though I do not know if it is more compelling. Morality factors into reality, it affects decisions being made. Not to go into theology, most people at least want to think of their actions as moral. You have to anticipate this when drawing up policies. If an amoral policy seems much clearer and more effective than a moral policy that's slow and fuzzy, it's probably because you've kept some factors out of the equation.

(this maxim can be applied to economic policy to great effect, I expect)

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Dec 7th, 2008 at 08:37:27 PM EST
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most people at least want to think of their actions as moral.
A corollary of what I call "The First Law of Narcissism:"  Everyone wants to think well of themselves and will go to amazing lengths to do so.  Unfortunately our powers of rationalization even enable folks like Robert Mugabe and George Bush to think well of themselves.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Dec 8th, 2008 at 03:24:27 PM EST
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What China has done -- limit families to one child -- will halve the population in a generation. The only reason China's population hasn't collapsed is that people aren't dying at the rates they used to. But if everyone had small families of one or two children and some had none the population could halve in 30 or 40 years and then halve again. The big drawback would be an excess of old people (relatively) but that seems a small price to pay for a steep population fall, especially since old people can expect to be healthier.
by John Culpepper on Sun Dec 7th, 2008 at 12:35:51 AM EST
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But the things China has done to enforce that policy are... not pretty.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Dec 7th, 2008 at 05:53:53 AM EST
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... what would have happened if they had not responded to the crisis created by Mao's pro-population-growth policies would have likely been even worse.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sun Dec 7th, 2008 at 02:21:21 PM EST
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That's almost certainly true. But in very few other areas are we willing to accept that it is ethical to apply that kind of pressure to people in order to avoid disasters that lie ten or twenty years down the road.

It presents ethical issues that are... not trivial.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Dec 8th, 2008 at 04:19:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And at the same time, it seems too few are willing to act on problems like that before things get so bad that they present ethical dilemmas.

Half measures and lip-service or, in the case of the US, a Mao-like headlong rush in the wrong direction, have likely taken the whole world past the point of avoiding big ethical dilemmas with the climate crisis.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Dec 8th, 2008 at 06:24:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You would be referring to the USA's GREAT FLOP BACKWARDS, begun under Reagan and still continuing, I presume.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Dec 8th, 2008 at 03:27:19 PM EST
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... Backward under Bush and a Republican Congress, but the Great Flop Backward under Reagan and the Lesser Flopping Around Aimlessly under Bush-the-actually-elected and Clinton certainly contributed.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Dec 8th, 2008 at 04:45:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sadly, only now is the cachet of neo-rhetroic beginning to wear a bit thin.  Where Clinton needed to go was directly into strong prevailing headwinds.  When the neos had 40% thoroughly convinced and another 15-20% cowed into silence it was hard to make headway.  You don't have to fool all of the people all of the time.  55% for 38 years did just fine until the bastards blew themselves up.  Else we would be looking towards a McCain Presidency.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Dec 8th, 2008 at 05:43:56 PM EST
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... a certain extent ... refraining from hiring people who'd gained experience in the Carter administration left him with an awfully green krewe at first, and he could well have done much better in his first year. And "winning" a belt tightening budget and NAFTA helped make the Republican majority in the House larger than it otherwise would have been, without which it might not have lasted twelve years.

But what made 92-94 so pivotal is that it was basically the best chance to make gains against the run of play ... when the bad guys are mostly playing offense for all but two years of a quarter century, then on the one hand, it makes that any slips in that narrow opening critical, but on the other hand, the fact that the opening is so narrow shows what you're up against.

As LBJ said, the Civil Rights act meant the loss of the White House for a generation, except for the fluke of a wealthy third-party run at the White House ... but now that generation has passed.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Dec 8th, 2008 at 06:25:04 PM EST
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but now that generation has passed.
And are we ever glad!  I don't care that so many of Obama'a appointments are from the Clinton Admin., so long as he can drive them leftward.  I do want the current ideology thoroughly discredited to the extent that 70-80% want to puke when they hear it.  The damage they have inflicted using that ideology needs to be clearly and thoroughly identified with the ends, means and morality of that whole movement.  Come the day!


As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Dec 9th, 2008 at 01:06:15 AM EST
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