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There's a rumour going around that HRC is putting all of her effort into Texas, winning the pretty well and then calling a group of "concerned senior Dems" together and saying that the campaign is hurting Democratic chances, so why don't they just crown her champ and chuck the other guy under a bus.

Whihc might just be the interesting thing to happen to the Democratic party in a long lot of years.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 01:01:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, she's heavily favored there, so no surprise.  But I don't think that's going to impress the party elders.  Pelosi's deputy supports Obama, and the inside-the-Beltway consensus seems to be that it is as close to a Pelosi endorsement as a candidate will get (not that a back-door Pelosi endorsement is impressive to those of us who don't particularly like Pelosi).

And, if that's her plan, it means she's got to win Texas and Ohio convincingly.  She's raising expectations behind the scenes, and that may well spill over into the chatter on the talk shows.  I don't know why the source, if he/she really supports Clinton, would do that.  If she loses both, she'll be damaged beyond repair.

She's betting on Latinos in Tejas.  But take a look at the polls: Obama's been closing that gap, barely losing Latinos in AZ and NM, and winning them in CT, and he's picking up key endorsements in the more Latino-dominated areas of Texas.  She needs those areas to offset areas like Austin, where the college-town/liberal/young-professional lot should give Obama a huge advantage (or that's at least what I'd guess Austin looks like).

I'm not sure how Dallas-Ft Worth and Houston line up.

Texas is an open primary, too, and with the McCain nomination all but a mathematical certainty, Indies and moderate/liberal Reps could play a big role.  The odd thing, to me, is that Clinton is winning with moderate Dems, while Obama is winning liberal Dems and moderate Indies/Reps.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 01:12:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
kubla000 has a diary up on Kos stating:

State Rep. Pete Gallego, chairman of the Mexican American Legislative Caucus, has announced he is endorsing Barack Obama for president.

The Alpine Democrat had earlier supported his near neighbor, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson.

The non-partisan Mexican American Legislative Caucus comprises most Hispanic members of the Texas House of Representatives. Gallego said he was in the process of contacting other Democrats in MALC to see who they are lining up for in the presidential election.

by ATinNM on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 01:20:54 PM EST
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There ya go.  He needs to grab some mayors and city council members in these towns and cities, too, though.  Getting a foothold in the local-government machinery is supposedly key in Texas.

I doubt he'll get the Richardson endorsement, but it's telling that Richardson didn't endorse Clinton, given the history.  Obama-Richardson, perhaps?

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 01:26:16 PM EST
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Richardson is shrewd.

He has nothing to gain by endorsing either candidate.  By not endorsing he keeps the potential for being the VP nominee of the winning campaign.  

His presence on the ticket opens some space for the Democrat by putting Arizona, Florida, and Texas into doubt, forcing the GOP to throw money and clout into those states.  

by ATinNM on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 01:36:40 PM EST
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I'm not sure how large a role it'd play in Texas and Arizona, since we tend to win the Latino vote overwhelmingly anyway.  What he might do in Florida is throw a wrench into the heavily-Republican Cuban vote, but that's doubtful.

I don't think we're going to win Florida, simply because of the fact that it's more conservative than people tend to think.  To win Florida, you need to come out a few hundred thousand votes ahead in Greater Miami, which is tough.  And you also need to win swing cities like Orlando and Tampon Bay by decent margins.

Clinton's strength would be with older women showing up big, potentially, while Obama potentially brings large black turnout in key GOP areas like Jacksonville and perhaps shaves some anti-war military votes from McCain.  The last poll I saw showed soldiers were even more anti-war than the general public, so there's potential to capitalize on it, breaking the typical 80/20 GOP advantage.

But, even with all that, Florida would be a dogfight.  McCain will get huge turnout in the panhandle, between Tallahassee and Mobile.  (Tallahassee, itself, will go 2/3s for the Dem no matter what, but it's everything to the West that will be solidly McCainiac territory.)

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 01:50:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Our Archbishop is one conservative jerk and had the priests read a letter during Mass the Sunday before the election denouncing the evil Democrats and their evil support for abortion.  This caused Kerry, narrowly, to lose New Mexico from the Hispano vote up north.  Richardson cruised to victory.
by ATinNM on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 05:24:45 PM EST
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Yeah, I knew that was going to be a problem for Kerry.  Good on Richardson fo beating it.

I guess maybe the church was afraid to go after Richardson for fear of losing Latinos?

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 05:42:50 PM EST
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(Did you see my response to you in the Salon?)

If that's their strategy, they are getting increasingly delusional.

In my experience - admittedly it has been a while, the majority of PLEO (Political Leaders and Elected Officials) delegates are more concerned to protect/advance their own careers.  Anything and everything else is secondary.  Obama, by winning the elections on/in their turf is going to be a large factor in his favor.  Clinton can say she will do this or that for them; Obama can deliver votes.

 

by ATinNM on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 01:17:29 PM EST
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Don't forget money, too.  The local officials are likely have dollar signs in their eyes when looking at Obama's fundraising machine.  Clinton nabbed most of the big donors early on, so Obama had to build a small-donor base, and he did so with surprising success.  Clinton is bragging about getting 100,000 donors in 2008. That's impressive, until you consider that Obama has 360,000 for the year.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 01:31:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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