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I'm not sure how large a role it'd play in Texas and Arizona, since we tend to win the Latino vote overwhelmingly anyway.  What he might do in Florida is throw a wrench into the heavily-Republican Cuban vote, but that's doubtful.

I don't think we're going to win Florida, simply because of the fact that it's more conservative than people tend to think.  To win Florida, you need to come out a few hundred thousand votes ahead in Greater Miami, which is tough.  And you also need to win swing cities like Orlando and Tampon Bay by decent margins.

Clinton's strength would be with older women showing up big, potentially, while Obama potentially brings large black turnout in key GOP areas like Jacksonville and perhaps shaves some anti-war military votes from McCain.  The last poll I saw showed soldiers were even more anti-war than the general public, so there's potential to capitalize on it, breaking the typical 80/20 GOP advantage.

But, even with all that, Florida would be a dogfight.  McCain will get huge turnout in the panhandle, between Tallahassee and Mobile.  (Tallahassee, itself, will go 2/3s for the Dem no matter what, but it's everything to the West that will be solidly McCainiac territory.)

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 01:50:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Our Archbishop is one conservative jerk and had the priests read a letter during Mass the Sunday before the election denouncing the evil Democrats and their evil support for abortion.  This caused Kerry, narrowly, to lose New Mexico from the Hispano vote up north.  Richardson cruised to victory.
by ATinNM on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 05:24:45 PM EST
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Yeah, I knew that was going to be a problem for Kerry.  Good on Richardson fo beating it.

I guess maybe the church was afraid to go after Richardson for fear of losing Latinos?

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 05:42:50 PM EST
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