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My addiction is getting worse.  Where are those bastards in Maine with their caucus results?!

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 11:24:00 AM EST
How many hours is it going to be? 8? 12? 16?
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 11:39:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the last caucus will end by 9.30PM, but I assume we'll get reports on the ground beforehand.  It's apparently a bit like Nebraska, where you have caucus times varying by county.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 11:46:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's very sad when stat-freaks start to 'lose it.'  Their eyes glaze over, they start mumbling,  they walk into walls, they confuse Chi-squares with Cheetos.

Being a member of a caring community, here at ET, I offer:

Here is a list of counties in Maine.  (By going through the lists you can assemble the start, end, and reporting times for all the precincts in Maine.)  

to alleviate Drew's suffering.

by ATinNM on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 12:29:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I appreciate that, AT.

Although, I don't need to lose it in order to walk into things like walls, as any of my friends can tell you.  My amazing clumsiness is usually more than sufficient.

I'm still struck by the margin in Washington.  I figured he'd take Seattle and Tacoma by healthy margins, but this was completely unexpected to me.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 12:50:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Obama people are a fervent lot, willing to engage in active politics to push their guy along.

Clinton seems to be depending on the 65+ demographic who are a little more disengaged.  They will throw the lever but not get heavily involved in the scrum.

At least that's how I read it.

 

by ATinNM on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 12:57:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There's a rumour going around that HRC is putting all of her effort into Texas, winning the pretty well and then calling a group of "concerned senior Dems" together and saying that the campaign is hurting Democratic chances, so why don't they just crown her champ and chuck the other guy under a bus.

Whihc might just be the interesting thing to happen to the Democratic party in a long lot of years.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 01:01:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, she's heavily favored there, so no surprise.  But I don't think that's going to impress the party elders.  Pelosi's deputy supports Obama, and the inside-the-Beltway consensus seems to be that it is as close to a Pelosi endorsement as a candidate will get (not that a back-door Pelosi endorsement is impressive to those of us who don't particularly like Pelosi).

And, if that's her plan, it means she's got to win Texas and Ohio convincingly.  She's raising expectations behind the scenes, and that may well spill over into the chatter on the talk shows.  I don't know why the source, if he/she really supports Clinton, would do that.  If she loses both, she'll be damaged beyond repair.

She's betting on Latinos in Tejas.  But take a look at the polls: Obama's been closing that gap, barely losing Latinos in AZ and NM, and winning them in CT, and he's picking up key endorsements in the more Latino-dominated areas of Texas.  She needs those areas to offset areas like Austin, where the college-town/liberal/young-professional lot should give Obama a huge advantage (or that's at least what I'd guess Austin looks like).

I'm not sure how Dallas-Ft Worth and Houston line up.

Texas is an open primary, too, and with the McCain nomination all but a mathematical certainty, Indies and moderate/liberal Reps could play a big role.  The odd thing, to me, is that Clinton is winning with moderate Dems, while Obama is winning liberal Dems and moderate Indies/Reps.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 01:12:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
kubla000 has a diary up on Kos stating:

State Rep. Pete Gallego, chairman of the Mexican American Legislative Caucus, has announced he is endorsing Barack Obama for president.

The Alpine Democrat had earlier supported his near neighbor, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson.

The non-partisan Mexican American Legislative Caucus comprises most Hispanic members of the Texas House of Representatives. Gallego said he was in the process of contacting other Democrats in MALC to see who they are lining up for in the presidential election.

by ATinNM on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 01:20:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There ya go.  He needs to grab some mayors and city council members in these towns and cities, too, though.  Getting a foothold in the local-government machinery is supposedly key in Texas.

I doubt he'll get the Richardson endorsement, but it's telling that Richardson didn't endorse Clinton, given the history.  Obama-Richardson, perhaps?

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 01:26:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Richardson is shrewd.

He has nothing to gain by endorsing either candidate.  By not endorsing he keeps the potential for being the VP nominee of the winning campaign.  

His presence on the ticket opens some space for the Democrat by putting Arizona, Florida, and Texas into doubt, forcing the GOP to throw money and clout into those states.  

by ATinNM on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 01:36:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure how large a role it'd play in Texas and Arizona, since we tend to win the Latino vote overwhelmingly anyway.  What he might do in Florida is throw a wrench into the heavily-Republican Cuban vote, but that's doubtful.

I don't think we're going to win Florida, simply because of the fact that it's more conservative than people tend to think.  To win Florida, you need to come out a few hundred thousand votes ahead in Greater Miami, which is tough.  And you also need to win swing cities like Orlando and Tampon Bay by decent margins.

Clinton's strength would be with older women showing up big, potentially, while Obama potentially brings large black turnout in key GOP areas like Jacksonville and perhaps shaves some anti-war military votes from McCain.  The last poll I saw showed soldiers were even more anti-war than the general public, so there's potential to capitalize on it, breaking the typical 80/20 GOP advantage.

But, even with all that, Florida would be a dogfight.  McCain will get huge turnout in the panhandle, between Tallahassee and Mobile.  (Tallahassee, itself, will go 2/3s for the Dem no matter what, but it's everything to the West that will be solidly McCainiac territory.)

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 01:50:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Our Archbishop is one conservative jerk and had the priests read a letter during Mass the Sunday before the election denouncing the evil Democrats and their evil support for abortion.  This caused Kerry, narrowly, to lose New Mexico from the Hispano vote up north.  Richardson cruised to victory.
by ATinNM on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 05:24:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, I knew that was going to be a problem for Kerry.  Good on Richardson fo beating it.

I guess maybe the church was afraid to go after Richardson for fear of losing Latinos?

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 05:42:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
(Did you see my response to you in the Salon?)

If that's their strategy, they are getting increasingly delusional.

In my experience - admittedly it has been a while, the majority of PLEO (Political Leaders and Elected Officials) delegates are more concerned to protect/advance their own careers.  Anything and everything else is secondary.  Obama, by winning the elections on/in their turf is going to be a large factor in his favor.  Clinton can say she will do this or that for them; Obama can deliver votes.

 

by ATinNM on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 01:17:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't forget money, too.  The local officials are likely have dollar signs in their eyes when looking at Obama's fundraising machine.  Clinton nabbed most of the big donors early on, so Obama had to build a small-donor base, and he did so with surprising success.  Clinton is bragging about getting 100,000 donors in 2008. That's impressive, until you consider that Obama has 360,000 for the year.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 01:31:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Per CNN, 11% reporting in Maine:

Obama 50%
Clinton 48%

No idea where those are from.  The Maine thread at dKos apparently has on-the-ground reports showing a good day for Obama elsewhere.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 04:04:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Also, Clinton demoted her campaign manager.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 04:05:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is, by the way, utterly stupid.  Kos is right.  Doyle wasn't responsible for the failures.  Penn's idiotic micro-targeting (and the associated dog-whistling from surrogates), Bill Clinton's unbelievably large mouth, and the entire strategy of "inevitability" are the main causes of their problems.

Doyle's getting canned primarily for the incompetence of Clinton's inner circle.

Fire Penn, Hillary.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 04:54:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At 44% Reporting:

Obama 57%
Clinton 42%

Told you so :-)

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 05:26:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You did, indeed.  You've got me on Maine, and, so far, TBG is beating me on the bets for the nomination.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 06:00:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Obama is now 56 pledged delegates ahead in CNN's count. 28 delegates from Washington still have to be alotted, along with today's 24 from Maine. Plus a few leftovers, left and right. I guess my estimate of 50-60 pledged delegates ahead after the weekend was... conservative. He's going to be 70 ahead going into the Virginia, Maryland, and DC.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 06:31:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think he's actually going to be in the lead on delegates even when you take her big lead among superdelegates into account now.

I just got a text from MSNBC.  Maine is being called for Obama.  Clean sweep for the weekend.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 06:33:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Breaking:

Bush has offered to endorse McCain.

"McCain is a true conservative."

Might be useful in the primaries.  Doubt it will be of good in the election.

by ATinNM on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 05:10:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bonus ;-)

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 05:15:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He also went after Obama on Faux News this morning, apparently.

(shrug) He's welcome to endorse McCain.  I hope St John has to pander non-stop to the religionists between now and the conventions, because it's simply going to out him, in the public eye, as the extremist we all know he is.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 05:18:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
[Bush] also went after Obama on Faux News this morning ...

That's very strange.

Normally the sitting President doesn't play attack dog during the primaries.  It too often backfires and gives the attacked more support within their party.

You'd have to be a dumb, ignora.....

Oh.  Yeah.  This is Bush we're talking about.

Never mind.

by ATinNM on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 05:32:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I read what he said earlier.  It seemed pretty weak, all things considered.

He was defending Bill Clinton's behavior in South Carolina and saying Obama would ruin our relationship with his bff Musharraf.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 05:41:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bush is also saying that if the Dems win, peace and prosperity could be at stake.

Just another day in the life of Captain Surreal. [shrug]

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 05:55:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, but that was the CPAC convention, which always brings out the nuttiest of nutjobs and sparks extra awesomeness in even the "mainstream" Republicans.  I say, "Please continue, Mr President."  Bush is our bestest buddy in this race.

Captain Surreal.  Love it.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 05:58:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
44% reporting in Maine:

Obama 57%
Clinton 42%

One of the Maine blogs has a rundown by city and town.  It seems Obama won the vast majority, and by wider margins generally.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 05:20:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Going to be a long day.

IIRC, some of the caucuses won't be over until 8:00 PM Right Coast Time.  Only the FSM knows when the results will be tabulated, reported.

by ATinNM on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 05:27:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Results tossed together in a messy way (but with cool map!) here.

Looks like an advantage to Obama in the big areas with scattered Clinton and Obama support in rural towns.  Obama seems to have won the coast and the NE portion of the US-Canadian border.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 05:38:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
58% to 41% with 69% in.

NBC is calling it for Obama.

Clinton just got creamed. I don't think she would have expected this in her worst nightmares.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 06:34:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Last poll had her ahead by some obscene amount.  This is bigger than simply a caucus advantage for Obama.  This is a massive shift, and I think it probably explains Doyle getting fired.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 06:42:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Mark Penn is the one who should be out on the streets.

I think Clinton is going to hang in there now at least until Texas. But Texas will be closer than she expects.

Oh - and Obama won a grammy today.

It's going to take more than Clinton's got to turn this around now. My guess is some party grandees will be lining up to have a word with her soon.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 06:52:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Agreed.  Jabba's gotta go.

Obama has swept all of the big Texas newspapers, too.

It's not entirely impossible to imagine Obama winning there, especially if he's making inroads among the working-class whites and Latinos.  And he may be.  If he closes the gap with those two groups, it's over.

There's also perhaps a certain rally-to-the-leader-to-stop-McCain factor that may play in the next several contests.  The fact that he may be leading her even if you count superdelegates has got to have Camp Clinton freaking out.

And, yeah, Grammys don't hurt, especially when the press will be talking of how he beat out Bill Clinton for it.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 07:00:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So now you can win a Grammy in the "best spoken word" category by reading your autobiography?

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 07:01:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They had that one for years.  Bill Clinton's won three of them, and Hillary won one for It Takes a Village.

It wasn't the biography one, though, I believe.  It was the recent one.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 07:04:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sure, but a spoken word grammy for an audiobook recording is an insult to true spoken word artists like, say, Sherman Alexie (to name just one I have had the plleasure to see live).

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 07:06:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You lived in Southern California, center of the Bizarro World that is the entertainment industry, for a few years and yet you really think these Hollywood award shows decide based upon actual merit?

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 07:14:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I will totally concur with Migs about Sherman Alexie.  Brilliant writer, very funny.  He became a friend during the development of "Smoke Signals," directed by Chris Eyre, which won Sundance.  Being on set for last days of shooting was one of the high points in my life.  The wrap party was over the top.

Sherman was always great at readings, and he sparked many Native kids to develop their writing.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 07:34:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Potomac Primary is looking bad for her, too.  And at last night's Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Richmond, they each gave speeches.  Even my mother, a pretty militant Clinton supporter, had to admit Obama shredded all of Clinton's arguments.

He seems to be hitting his stride just when she stumbles, but I'm still hesitant to call it that way, since I'm still spooked from New Hampshire.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 07:03:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The CNN headline is "Clinton shakes up staff after Obama sweep" which is better than "Clinton Campaign in Turmoil After Obama Sweep."

But not much better.

Looking at the polls for Tuesday:

DC:

Clinton:  ?
Obama:  ?

Note:  I can't believe O isn't going to take this one big.

Maryland:

Clinton: 33%
Obama: 52%

Virginia:

Clinton: 37%
Obama: 52%

So things are looking grim for Senator Inevitable from New York.

by ATinNM on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 07:31:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And those are among the more favorable polls.  Others had him up 20pts in Maryland and Virginia.

She'll get delegates in DC, but Obama will easily beat her.  Go with me on this when I say, it's only the chattering class that's voting for her there -- the West of the Park crowd.  Beyond them, it's all black folks, students and young professionals in the District.

She's trying to push up her score in the DC exurbs in Virginia, like Manassas and Woodbridge.  Obama will dominate Alexandria and Arlington, I'd guess, as the party machinery has bailed on her for fear of being voted out.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 07:39:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Go with me on this ...

OK, but only because it's you.  ;-)

...the party machinery has bailed on [Clinton] for fear of being voted out.

Kee-rist!  

by ATinNM on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 07:59:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, it's been one embarrassment after another for her in NoVa.  She held a rally in Arlington the other day, and a class from the local high school attended as a civics lesson.  One of Clinton's warm-up people shouted, "Who's going to be the next president?"  The response from the kids was, of course, to immediately begin the "O-BAM-A" chant.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 08:02:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ROTFLMAO!
by ATinNM on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 08:22:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You know, I want to know, too:  Apparently Clinton's campaign was effectively bankrupt after New Hampshire after raising $150m (part of the reason Doyle got canned).  My question is this:

How in Christ's name did they spend $150m and only make it to January 8th?

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 08:14:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A picture of Clinton's campaign management:

Running a campaign the Old Fashioned Way has a major burn-rate.  

Penn, all by hisself, has gotten - what? - five million or thereabouts?  

by ATinNM on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 08:21:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Exactly.  I'd almost feel bad for her if not for all the crap that's gone down in this campaign.  Win or lose, it's pigs at the trough in Camp Clinton.  And now she's falling against McCain, nationwide and in critical states, while Obama's got a 7-8pt lead (and growing).

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 08:33:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now it's 59-41% with 79% reporting.  this one might get into Nebraska/Washington territory.

So who will they blame it on this time?  The blacks?  The "latte liberals"?  The kids?  The press?  The money?  The caucus system?  I want to see how Jerome Armstrong and his little minions at MyDD explain this one away.

Nothin' but a bunch of rich, young Negroes in Maine after all.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 07:33:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The thread on MyDD is shockingly rational until about 75% of the way down.  

 

by ATinNM on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 07:51:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's all the fault of the caucus system, of course -- a system that was perfectly fair in their minds when conventional wisdom held that Clinton would have the superior organization on the ground.  Then those little brats in Camp Obama whooped'em, and caucuses were suddenly OMG, it's so teh Da Devil!

I love that Taylor Marsh, that psychopath, is spinning the Doyle firing as a good thing.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 07:58:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Obama campaign seems to have pulled a good one on the press with those delegate projections, too.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 08:00:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's unchanged at 59% reporting.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 05:57:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
59% reporting:

Obama 57%
Clinton 42%

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2008 at 05:55:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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