And, to follow up on your invocation of the beneficient effect of human rights legislation in the UK (which I should point out was not prompted by EU membership, but by Council of Europe membership, very very big difference) I would point out that the EU pays a very big price, with little counterparty, for UK membership in the EU. Nil aon leigheas ar an ngra ach posadh
Perhaps one might say to preserve the liberal-secular nature of Europe, Turkey might be best kept at arm's length for now?
The two are not mutually exclusive. Turkey can be given a guarantee of membership if and when they are a stable, secular democracy that does not oppress minorities, try to revise history and/or protect war criminals. This will have the effect of aligning debate in Turkey with European policy (as long as we don't piss off the Turks badly enough that they say "screw it, we'll go play with Russia or the US instead"), while at the same time protecting the Union against getting another Poland writ big.
But for it to work, the guarantee of membership has to be credible. I don't think that means a timeline, exactly, so much as a trust that Turkish membership isn't going to be called into question purely for domestic consumption by xenophobes within the Union. And a lot of politicians seem keen on breaking that trust right now. I fear that in ten years we can add alienating Turkey to the list of criminally stupid things the right wing did in the aftermath of the Cold War.
- Jake If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.
