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While their loss of direct domination is the most apparent, it is just them who are in the most comfortable and safest situation in coalition pokers.

Intuitively, I'd say the same is true for the Dutch equivalent, the CDA, that rarely has not been part of government. It probably also helps that in the Netherlands the christian fundies are represented in their own parties (CU and SGP) and hence don't form part of a government coalition - except for the current one... CDA has the reputation now to be opportune: swing left or right during coalition building - I could imagine the CDU growing more and more into a similar position. Although I know little of the internal factions within the party.

by Nomad on Tue Feb 26th, 2008 at 01:38:02 PM EST
Well, CDU curently has no serious rival to the right, not to mention CSU (which made it official dogma), so it can only swing left, if Martin is to be believed :-)

Now that you mentioned the Dutch Christian fundies, that reminds me of something. The CDU/CSU of course does cover Catholic fundies (mainly in South Germany), but not the protestant fundies (Lutheran Church in North Germany is decidedly more liberal and sane).

However, there is a separate Christian fundie party backed by the as yet dwarf Protestant fundies, the Partei Bibeltreuer Christen = Party of Bible-Faithful Christians (PBC). It is nowhere near entering the parliament: a mere 0.12% in the 2005 federal elections, but I still find a mass of 57 thousand convinced creationists somehow... worrying.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Feb 26th, 2008 at 03:46:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There is even a little more convincing alternative in BW (the PBC has its main base as well in a BW, and I think there is even a small village, where they have the majority), but they are as well far below any serious level in non-regional levels.
The ökologisch-demokratische Partei.
On the local level there is often some kind of free-voter-party alternative, but they have usually no all over the country presence, which makes it nearly impossible for them to enter any parliaments. For a new party to enter there has to be a huge movement (greens) or a otherwise dramatic historic event (Linke, if you assume that the WASG would have had a hard time without the PDS party apparatus).

And indeed I think that the CDU will not take its "Leipziger Parteitagsbeschluesse" very serious. In 2005 the CDU ran a full economic free market campaign (as you probably know, but maybe accidental readers not) and the outcome was much worse than expected. We have grand coalition now, so CDU and SPD can't go completely in different directions on the issues, but I frankly don't see on which substance CDU and SPD will run their next campaigns as probably no party will explain that the current period was a complete waste of time and after all the politics was as well not so incredible different from the red-green gov under Schroeder (Can anybody name something significant happened during the last years, else than the VAT increase and some family policy where the CDU minister did a pretty much SPD like policy?).

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Tue Feb 26th, 2008 at 05:08:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
With outcome I mean the voters share, just to clarify.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers
by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Tue Feb 26th, 2008 at 05:10:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In the Netherlands, you can get a parliament seat if you get 0.66% percent (1/150) of the vote. So it is easier for the small Christians than in Germany. If people knew their votes wouldn't be wasted, perhaps more people would vote 'Bibeltreu' than nowadays.

One of the Dutch Christian parties, the SGP or 'Staatskundig Geroformeerde Partij', is definitely fundie, they don't allow women to vote(their husbands do it for them). the otheone, the CU or ChristenUnie is more mixed, and recently got a lot of CDA voters who thought the CDA had become too conservative/neoliberal.

by GreatZamfir on Wed Feb 27th, 2008 at 04:17:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If people knew their votes wouldn't be wasted, perhaps more people would vote 'Bibeltreu' than nowadays.

I know, and this is why I shudder at the thought of even just tens of thousands of PBC list-voters: those must be real hardcore creationists; and they proselytize. Just checked prior results (the first figure is votes on party lists, the second votes for directly elected candidates):

  1. 65,651/26,864
  2. 71,941/46,379
  3. 101,645/71,106
  4. 108,605/57,027

That's solid growth in list votes.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Feb 27th, 2008 at 04:46:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's
1994-8:    +10%/+73%
1998-2002: +41%/+53%
2002-5:     +7%/-20%
Maybe they've reached their ceiling.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 27th, 2008 at 05:02:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Given that turnout grew 1994-8 and fell 2002-5, and that the latter was only three years, I think those growths are comparable. (The direct vote isn't truly comparable for minor parties: if they don't manage to put a candidate on the ballot paper, potential PBC voters can't draw the X.)

On the other hand, I checked how they fared in recent regional elections where they ran, and that does indicate a ceiling:

Baden-Württenberg: 2001-20,528, 2006-26,759
Rhineland-Palatinate: 2001-5,379, 2006-4,973
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: 2002-1,312, 2006-1,957
Bremen: 2003-1,009, 2007-960
Hessen: 2003-6,674, 2008-did not run
Lower Saxony: 2003-7,819, 2008-5,851
Hamburg: 2004-1,571, 2008-did not run

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Feb 27th, 2008 at 06:16:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In Spain you have to get 3% of the vote in any one constituency. However, given the constituency sizes this only plays a role in Madrid, which elects 35 seats (Barcelona elects 31).

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 27th, 2008 at 04:57:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Are they now creationists? When I lived in Germany, their main campaign theme (at least that directed to the general public) seemed to be support for Israel...
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Wed Feb 27th, 2008 at 04:40:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There's no contradiction there, but maybe you aren't familiar with the full insanity of US Evangelical Christian fundamentalism.

PBC are in part subsidiaries of, in totality fans of, and supported/funded by, the US fundamentalists. Thus they bring forward the entire ideology: the millenarist Christian fundie support for Israel (because the Book of Revelations predicts the re-emergence of Israel and it fighting a big war just before the Apocalypse), creationism as 'science' and 'evilution' as false science, push for homeschooling, abortion is evil.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Feb 27th, 2008 at 04:54:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
German Radical Christians Look to US | Germany | Deutsche Welle | 11.11.2004
PBC leader Gerhard Heinzmann, who has no problem being labelled a Christian fundamentalist, said he was pleased with Bush's re-election.

"There's an extraordinary agreement on issues between our supporters and Bush voters," Heinzmann said, citing opposition to gay marriage and abortion as examples. Both groups "not only elect their government, but also pray for its members," he said. And that's what counts, he added.

...Rüdiger Hauth, who monitors religious sects for the Evangelical Church, Germany's largest Protestant church, in the western German region of Westphalia, said there are ten thousands of supporters. But Richard Ziegert, Hauth's colleague from the southwestern region of Palatinate, believes that there are more than 250,000 radical Christians in the country and US missionaries are increasingly coming to Germany to spread the word.



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Feb 27th, 2008 at 04:58:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I can absolutely confirm the latter. In Karlsruhe there are some quite strange student organisations, which are bigger than the normal protestant church group. They e.g. offer German courses for foreign students without a fee, and then use the bible as textbook. They sing mostly English songs and have some other habits, which make it clear, that they are US inspired, if not directly supported.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers
by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Wed Feb 27th, 2008 at 07:27:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, don't get me started on the PBC. My aunt was one of their candidates in a Saarland state election - and that says more than enough about the party.

/make your cross where it belongs

"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles." Sun Tzu

by Turambar (sersguenda at hotmail com) on Wed Feb 27th, 2008 at 10:03:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I know about the American crazies. I guess to the extent I thought about it at all, I must have assumed that the PBC was some sort of old-fashioned German Pietist-type thing, with quaint ideas like following the Gospels. It never occurred to me that they had anything to do with the Americans.
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Wed Feb 27th, 2008 at 04:42:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Aw, crap. The fundagelicals are Really Bad News on so many levels. How do we kill that movement off before it takes root in Europe?

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Feb 27th, 2008 at 06:50:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
(love the new sig!)

Don't fight forces, use them R. Buckminster Fuller.
by rg (leopold dot lepster at google mail dot com) on Wed Feb 27th, 2008 at 05:22:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The sig comes from here:

A Presidential European: Uffe Ellemann-Jensen

Reportedly watching the final in Lisbon ,on a portable television, while attempting to extricate his country from the treaty rejection mess his voters had created for him, Mr. Ellemann-Jensen watched Denmark pull off a resounding victory over the German machine. Entering the hall where the formal dinner marking the final night of this inaugural EU summit, Ellemann-Jensen famously quips to reporters "If you can't join them, beat them!". Negotiations, successfully followed up by the Edinburgh accords in the following year, save the Maastricht treaty, nascent EU institutions and Denmark's membership in them.


We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 27th, 2008 at 05:27:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No... Actually, in the typical Dutch student house where I was staying during my period in the Netherlands, there is always some rivalry between floors. A poster was always hanging above the staircase, "If you can't beat them, join them!" And I have the curious habit to turn phrases around in my head to see how they sound... That is, truly, all that happened.

My latest one is "After darkness comes fuel" (which is an actual commerical slogan here by BP) - I like "After fuel comes darkness" a lot better...

I had completely forgotten about Ellemann-Jensen. Serendipity strikes!

by Nomad on Wed Feb 27th, 2008 at 07:05:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Reminds me of (at a slight tangent) "No pain, no gain!" which a friend turned into "No pain, no pain."

Don't fight forces, use them R. Buckminster Fuller.
by rg (leopold dot lepster at google mail dot com) on Wed Feb 27th, 2008 at 08:00:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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