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... its a relationship of cumulative causation.

So, yes, a country that has experienced a collapse of its currency has few routes to a strong currency other than a strong economy ... but even then, the choice to have a stronger currency rather than stronger demands in labor markets is a policy choice made in the context of a strong economy.

However, a country that has had a strong economy, and in particular a country that has had the strongest economy in the world, can have additional routes to a strong currency ... just as one abstract example, a tacit collaboration with nations pursuing neo-mercentalist policies of a steeply discounted peg against "such a currency" (cough US$) would be able to maintain a higher indirect exchange rates for "such a currency" than otherwise.

That's not a permanently sustainable policy, but its sustainable over the medium term ... for example, over the long term the other parties to the game may not find themselves either able to sustain the neo-mercentalist policy against political demands to deliver standard of living gains, or willing to hold the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves denominated in an artificially inflated currency.

So, US$0.05 (€0.04 soon to be €0.02) version: a strong economy permits a country to sustain a "strong currency" policy, in service to its wealthy or in service to foreign adventurism (or both) ... but a "strong currency" policy without the backing of a strong economy is a foolish policy, and the policy that the US has been pursuing as if having a "strong currency" magically creates the strong economy that is required to make a "strong currency" policy sustainable.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Wed Feb 27th, 2008 at 06:37:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well said.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Feb 27th, 2008 at 06:41:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
BruceMcF:
a "strong currency" policy without the backing of a strong economy is a foolish policy, and the policy that the US has been pursuing as if having a "strong currency" magically creates the strong economy that is required to make a "strong currency" policy sustainable.
You make the US sound like Argentina prior to the corralito.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 28th, 2008 at 07:11:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... a lot of countries have tried this trick of keeping a strong currency on the back of a weakening economy, and it does not usually end up well.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Feb 28th, 2008 at 12:29:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What do you make of the arguments that a strong Euro is going to kill the Italian economy?

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 28th, 2008 at 05:35:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nothing some appropriate transfers from the rest of the Eurozone can't fix.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Feb 28th, 2008 at 05:43:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A lot of ideological baggage needs to be dropped in the European Union before that can happen.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 28th, 2008 at 05:45:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Shock Socialism.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Feb 28th, 2008 at 05:49:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe Italy should do some structural changes in its economy instead?

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Fri Feb 29th, 2008 at 10:15:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... I reckon the EU can manage it ... and if it can't, I'm not close enough to the facts on the ground to work out what the pitfalls are.

Of course, whether it will or not, that is always an open question, but I reckon it can be done.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Feb 28th, 2008 at 06:44:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Mexico. Brazil. Argentina. Mexico, again. Thailand. Indonesia. Argentina, again.
And now, the United States."
Enjoy Paul Krugman, and in his blog there is quite some more comparison of the US with emerging markets.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers
by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Thu Feb 28th, 2008 at 01:34:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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