Display:
Where's the math? The summary reads nicely, but is there a model or simulation or set of statistics to back up the text? It would be more convincing if so...
by asdf on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 10:40:23 AM EST
You're right. That is so what he needed to add to an 800 word op-ed.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 10:46:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, it doesn't need to be in the editorial, it needs to be behind the editorial.
by asdf on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:02:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think that's going to be my (and others') job in the next few months...

But this 800-word piece is the first step of at least 5 we envision:

  • summary diary
  • op-ed
  • chapter of Jerome's and afew's book on the French "decline" (or lack thereof)
  • outline for Jerome's book on the "Anglo Disease"
  • Jerome's book on "Anglo Disease".

Whoops, did I spill the beans?

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 10:47:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If there is really to be a book, and if there is a historical chapter, it might be interesting to compare the anglo disease of the 21st century to the "anglomanie" of the 1730s and 1740s, "in which a universal fashion for English ideas, influences, and styles swept the continent from France to Russia." ('Radical Enlightenment', Jonathan Israel)

This is not the first time that the Brits have had an undue influence on European thinking...

by asdf on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:06:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I was just rereading Bernal Vol I at bedtime last night. He attributes that periodization of 18th cen. European "anti-scientific philosophy" to intellectual historian Margaret Jacob.

cf either The Newtonians and the English Revolution (1976) or The Radical Englightment: Pantheists, Freemasons and Republics (1981); I've read neither nor J. Isreal.

The crucial distinction between Enlightenment and Radical Enlightenment teleology which politicized institutional norms was all things French. 1660 to 1770 was a period of great economic expansion, technical and empirical validation, and concentration of political power among Europe's monarchal families from which the Bourbons emerged um golden.

Following the aftermath of the 30 Years War, Bernal identifies four literary "forces" that reconstructed power centers among the antagonists' elite, philosophers: (i) Christian hostility toward pagan and neo-platonic civilizations (Casaubon, Bruno, Bentley); (ii) primacy of "progress" or modernity, justified by dating knowledge (Banier); (iii) racism (Locke, Hume, Toland); and (iv) Hellenism (Napoleon). The reign of Louis XIV, the "New Rome," is said to glorify the alchemical past while symbolizing the antithesis of post-war German "identity" as elaborated by, say, Leibniz, Goethe.

Göttingen can well be considered the embryo of all later, modern, diversified and professional universities. It was established in 1734 by George II, King of England and Elector of Hanover, was well endowed, and as a new foundation was able to escape many of the medieval religious and acholastic constraints that persisted in other universities. With its British connections it was a conduit of Scottish Romanticism as well as for the philosophical and political ideas of Locke and Hume ... It is true to say that while exclusive professionalism was the distinctive form of Göttingen scholarship, the chief unifying principle of its content was ethnicity and racism. This, of course, was the result not merely of the English scholarly contacts but, much more importantly, of prevailing opinion in German cultivated society as a whole. [1987:215]

So you may need to get out your Weber as well to given Calvinism its due in promulation of (g).


Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 04:45:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Had I access to a competent English language research library, this would be one of the few areas I would be qualified to help with - at least, from the perspective of English language sources.

I do not know the professional or vocational leanings of many contributors to the site, but I would warn anyone considering a dip into the bottomless depths of British history against doing so as an amateur, for one is almost guaranteed to look like a fool.

by Zwackus on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 05:12:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Another name for the Anglo Disease is 'The Plague of Wasps'

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:15:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's a social science - which should focus on qualitative trends.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 10:55:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I thought the social sciences underwent a "quantitative revolution" back in the 1950s. At least Geography did.

This is actually one of my hot buttons. Anybody can write an editorial, but if there's no underlying analysis, it's just an argument. I'm sure you're aware of the great argument about whether global climate change is correlated (inversely, in fact) to the number of pirates.
http://www.venganza.org/

by asdf on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:11:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem is that with mathematical models you often lose track of the intuition and the subtleties necessary to properly grasp what's going on, while additionally making the arguments inaccessible to the general public.  It's one thing to say "GDP growth was 2.2% in 2007."  But when you discuss the microeconomics that are the foundations of the macroeconomics -- how different people react in different ways, and to different degrees, given a set of incentives -- you can quickly find that words are simply the more effective means of explanation.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:34:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I can see glimmers of a Leontieff-type model behind what Jerome is saying, but the econometrics of that are a bitch, and the end result is in terms of linear algebra at a level which is not all that high but in most US universities is considered upper-undergraduate for science students and graduate for social science students.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:38:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So while the physics students are learning tensor analysis so they can understand GR, the economic students are...
by asdf on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:42:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
...not.

There is no GR to understand in economics, either. Keynes' theory is very rish but I don't think it has been comprehensively mathematised, and it's not like Keynes thought it was necessary either.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:46:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The economics students are generally learning shit until they at least get into the intermediate-level coursework.  But even at the graduate level, they're just reading textbooks with a bunch of mathematical models.  If you want to learn real economics, then, in my view, you've got to read Smith, Keynes, Friedman (the economist, not the political commentator), etc.  Most of the economists these days are just goofing around with interpretations of the work of these people.

Paul Krugman is a notable exception among the younger economists, as someone who, in my opinion, is razor-sharp on the intuition and on the strengths and weaknesses of the mathematics.  Same goes for Stiglitz and DeLong.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:48:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
asdf:
This is actually one of my hot buttons. Anybody can write an editorial, but if there's no underlying analysis, it's just an argument.

Lots of maths in the FT and the Econo. It's not like they ever pull an argument out of thin air and try to make it convincing by repeating it over and over, even if it's nonsense.

If you're looking for quantitative support, consider:

  1. Relative incomes
  2. Relative taxation
  3. Relative debt burden
  4. Income changes over the last thirty years
  5. Practical - i.e. High Street and Main Street - inflation increases.
  6. Dot com, oil, and housing bubbles.
  7. The current credit crunch.
  8. Fradulent trading including BCCI, Enron, and the current crop of bandits.
  9. Cultural changes and increasingly abusive work practices.
  10. Union busting.
  11. Deliberate use of outsourcing and immigration to drive down wage prices.
  12. Constant media calls for 'reform' - juxtaposed explicitly againts worker income and job security.

I'm sure there's plenty there to keep you busy investigating real numbers.

Of course, apart from all of those - and it's not a complete list by any means - there's no evidence of a problem at all.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 12:17:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Those measures also have the advantage of being accessible to the typical reader.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 03:05:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think a model is the way to go at this point.  Jerome's right about economics being more of a qualitative study, especially in dealing with these large macro discussions.  You don't want the message to get bogged down in mathematical equations that will turn people off.  You want to explain the qualitative shifts, with the mathematics being implied by some stats and graphs, but not overshadowing the intuitive explanation.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:02:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Put another way, someone could work some mathematical models off of it, but it's the difference between The General Theory and models designed to show Keynes's theory mathemtically, like John Hicks's ISLM or one of the New Keynesian models.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:05:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe it's just my own ignorance of modern economics, but I am yet to see a mathematical model that captures the rich theory I see outlined in Keynes' book.

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:12:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not an economist either, but I think there is considerable mathematical theory in modern economics...
http://www.ioe.ac.uk/esrcmaths/sheila1.html
http://econpapers.repec.org/article/oupcambje/v_3A14_3Ay_3A1990_3Ai_3A1_3Ap_3A29-47.htm
by asdf on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:17:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is from your second link.

EconPapers: Keynes on Mathematics: Philosophical Foundations and Economic Applications

Keynes's hostility was aroused not by mathematics itself, but by pseudo-mathematics, or the failure to respect the nature and applicability of formal methods. Underlying Keynes's views is his distinctive philosophical framework, and the principle that logic (or philosophy) should precede and supervise the application of mathematics.
I have not read a lot of mathematical economics, but as a mathematician trained in physics I was unimpressed with Samuelson's Magnum Opus "Foundations of Economic Analysis", for instance. It's just ugly stuff.

And this is from your second link.

THE USE OF MATHEMATICS IN ECONOMICS

Mathematical tools have allowed many advances in economic theory. But at the same time, the difficulty in combining pure theory with applied economics has allowed the two strands to proceed according to different agendas. Even so, there are elements in common (presumption of equilibrium, fixity of meaning of terms and of the objects of measurement, etc) which provide the basis for mathematical treatment, but which nevertheless are controversial. Much of this issue boils down to the question of how far a study of complex social systems is amenable to the (mathematical) methods of analysis adopted by the physical sciences.

What was your point again?

We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:35:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I hear you. Unfortunately, lack of a decent mathematical foundation leads to, or at least allows, the Pirate-count based climate change model. Or whatever.
by asdf on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:40:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, of course not, because I think mathematics has a more difficult time expressing a complex theory like Keynes's properly, especially when it is boiled down into a simple model like ISLM.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:26:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:
Login
. Make a new account
. Reset password
Occasional Series