Ensuring "the external representation of the Union on issues concerning its common foreign and security policy" can be serious power.
There is the text, and then there the way it is implemented. According to the texts, as presidents of the European Commission, Jacques Delors and Jacques Santer were occupying the same post... "Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
Blair, currently the Middle East envoy for the US, Russia, EU and the UN, has told friends he has made no final decision, but is increasingly willing to put himself forward for the job if it comes with real powers to intervene in defence and trade affairs.
Note, in fact, that up to now Javier Solana has both been "Secretary General of the Council" (hence the key to providing continuity to the work of the Council athrough the rotating presidencies and probably influencing the agenda) as well as HRCFSP. These two jobs are now being separated and the "Secretary General" is becoming a "chairperson" with representative duties. Blair wants Solana's current job.
Some Blair allies also say that he now recognises that as envoy in the Middle East he is not going to be allowed to become the key player in furthering Israeli-Palestinian talks this year, and will be reduced to a role of supporting political development in Palestine and boosting its economy.
Apart from Blair, two other candidates most often mentioned are the former Austrian chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel, promoted by Germany, and the current Luxembourg prime minister, Jean-Claude Juncker.
Is that it? That's a pretty weak field. We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
As much as I dislike Schüssel, I'd prefer his annoying smile over Bliar's annoying smile :-) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
It's looking more and more like Blair is a Trojan Horse. The other two candidates are from the EPP. Sarkozy, also from the EPP, promotes Blair, nominally PES but at heart EPP.
Who is in the running for the four top EU jobs? Has the EPP claimed the Council by default? Will they install a faux-PES in the Council so they can take another job elsewhere? The political division would probably end up being EPP 2 jobs, PES 1 job, ALDE 1 job. We have met the enemy, and he is us — Pogo
According to this SPIEGEL article (the abridged English version of a German original unfortunately behind the subscription wall), the odds don't look good for Bliar, who has more enemies:
But numerous Social Democrats and most Christian Democrats, along with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, aren't as impressed. On Monday, the Daily Telegraph also reported that senior allies of current Prime Minister Gordon Brown were plotting to wreck Blair's ambitions for the post out of concern that his appointment could reignite old divisions within his Labour Party.
Further candidates discussed are Belgium's Verhofstadt, Poland's Kwaśniewski and Aznar, though they note Aznar has the same problem with the incumbent PM's opposition as Bliar... *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
Poul Nyrup Rasmussen could be a candidate for either the Commission or the Council. Bottom line is that the PES wins the 2009 elections (a few more European governments would also be helpful).
- Jake If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.
