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Helicopter Ben is back at work. My market shorting funds fell through the floor after a few weeks of solid gains. I suspect this will go on throughout the year, particularly since we're in an election year.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 01:22:30 PM EST
HeliBen needs to be named TIME's Person of the Year, and I want this picture on the cover.

$200bn more pumped in.  Jesus Christ.  I hear Jim Cramer used the words "run on the banks" today, too.  You know, when people say my generation is a lot like my grandparents, I tend to take it as a compliment.  This isn't what I had in mind.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 01:25:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think I'm going to shift some $$ back to my BoA accounts. They have pretty bad exposure to this mess, but are too large to be allowed to go under. The other bank my accounts are at...I doubt will survive, to be honest.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 01:35:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That was my thinking, too.  My cash is in BofA and Wachovia.  I'm really hoping this buyout of Countrywide doesn't go through, though.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 01:41:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You mean you guys have more than the $100K FDIC limit in your accounts?  Shouldn't you be investing in ET?

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 02:03:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not even close, but just enough of my grandfather's Depression-era attitude rubbed off on me to not trust the FDIC or any other federal program.  Especially not when this goofball country is controlled by voters who believe they can have massive tax cuts and Social Security.

If you're banking on any of these, and are fairly young, I submit that you might as well be in Vegas.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 02:10:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Modern/Contemporary Art is the place to invest and where all money flows to in unreliable times. Market prices have doubled in the last 18 months!

For people with more money than sense, art beats stocks and property. And, unlike getting a new car, they are happy if they have to pay more. There's nothing like putting your futures up on a wall ;-)

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 02:12:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
For me it's keeping myself liquid before the check comes. I've seen reassuring articles recently that state "generally another bank will pick up the accounts and nothing will change." Sounds like finance industry PR to me, although I'm not privy to any examples either way.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 02:29:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
helicopter Ben would probably be raising interest rates.

As soon as President McCain is sworn in, I suspect monetary policy will change...

Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant

by redstar on Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 01:26:33 PM EST
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Doubtful.  Helicopter Ben's suffers from a pretty severe case of deflationphobia.  He's clearly pretty spooked.I'll bet we're back to a 1% federal funds rate before the year's out.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 01:43:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't think Helicopter Ben is going to make it to the end of his term. Just a guess.

Recall US interest rates in 2000 when Gore was more or less in a Democratic re-election dynamic and the first of Greenspan's bubbles was deflating. Unlike now, they were ratcheting up interest rates.

Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant

by redstar on Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 01:57:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe.

But in an unusual move, AAA-rated mortgage securities issued by banks will also be accepted. Many investors have shied away from these mortgage-backed securities because they fear defaults in the underlying assets will erode the value.

The effort, which is being done in conjunction with other central banks in Canada and Europe, is designed to promote trading in these markets that have frozen up, experts said. The measure allows banks to temporarily get these illiquid securities off their books.

"They are providing liquidity to keep the deterioration of that market from bringing down the broader economy," said Ian Lyngen, interest rate strategist with RBS Greenwich Capital.

non-economist guess here: presumably they will transfer as much of this illiquid shit to the public as they can before the election, then raise interest rates after the election to save the dollar, and thus lock in the market "winnings" over the past few decades for the wealthy. Goodbye roads, schools, and firefighters. It will have to get that bad to get the public angry enough to demand their share back, though.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 01:47:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bingo.

Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant
by redstar on Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 01:53:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
attempt to balance the US budget, maybe gutting Social Security when the shock of the interest rate rise ripples through the middle-class and working-class segments of the economy and the state and local fiscal situations cause serious crises providing enough shock for justification of austerity measures.

The good news for me is that the dollar isn't likely to stay at $1.55 USD/EUR, so I won't be converting my cash quite yet.

Hell, maybe I'd better vote McCain.

Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant

by redstar on Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 01:55:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll probably bail on my Euro fund around election time.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 01:57:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Privatize the profits, socialize the costs."  Going to be a lot of that going around for the next couple years.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 01:56:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My oil shares have been doing fine, flat all through the credit crisis. Too bad the dollar has weakened 10 % against the krona since I bought them.

I guess I should work like hell on the side this spring to save some money and go on vacation to the US. I will be as rich as a king with all my hard currency! And the gasoline is almost free over there. Maybe a coast-to-coast road trip? ;D

And I've just figured out I can buy government bonds straight from the Swedish state online (no fees at all, wooo!) with a duration of 2 months to 25 years. There are inflation protected ones too. The intertubes is just great.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 02:51:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd like to do a NY to LA road trip. Minus one vacation as a kid and a road trip to Seattle last November I've hardly driven through the west at all.

I bailed on USO due to the contango issue that causes it to under perform vs. the spot price. If/when we get into a nasty recession and it drops back down to $70/80 a barrel I might pick it up again.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 02:58:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
USO? That's the one that follows the price of oil?

I made my own little big oil "index fund" by including pretty much equal amounts of Exxon, Chevron, Total, Conoco and Shell. Well, a little extra of Exxon. And none of the British "we can't even spell maintenance" Petroleum idiocy.

Haven't got enough money to include lots of smaller companies like Andarko and Talisman, even if those probably have a brighter future than the supermajors.

With the giant size of the companies and the inherent diversification of integrated big oil, the company risk goes away a bit.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 03:10:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Current property top tips for investment are Dubai, Norway and Mongolia (huge copper finds).

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 03:01:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Norway? You better talk to Solveig - she's been keeping a very close eye on property there with/for her daughter in Oslo and it's frozen up bad enough for estate agents to be going bust already.

Dunno enough about Dubai, but Mongolia sounds good if I can find it on the map... ;-)

Btw one of the better meals I've had was in a Mongolian barbecue restaurant in Bergen.

Yummm. But not recommended for vegetarians...

"Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 03:48:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Always liked the Mongolian Wok bar in Oxford myself. (and they did good vedgie food).

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 03:53:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's long term investment. Dubai and Norway is based on the economies staying firm cos of oil and gas. Mongolia cos of mineral resource. Canada got a mention in dispatches as well, but was downgraded cos the oil-shale technologies are problematic.

For short term stuff, other economies are looking better. Romania is  bit of a star at the moment. The break in the political log-jam in Cyrpus has brought a rash of N Cypriot property onto the market.

I also sensed a lot of confidence from Turkish sellers as well. Last year everything was being sold on EU membership, but I think they've realised they've got a good product whatever (and they do on the south coast but Bodrum is massively oversold). EU membership is just a bonus.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 04:02:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I follow the logic, but I think Dubai's oil is running out which is why they have made such a big play on property.

I think as energy costs rise, the sheer unsustainability of Dubai's rash of building is going to be a problem. Most of it isn't built to last and it really is AirCon Central....water isn't going to get any cheaper either.

I'm a fan of Northern Cyprus too, but the title situation is still problematic on much of it.

Wherever you can get mortgages you'll see property prices going up, of course.

"Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 06:01:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry, I checked my source, it's not Dubai they rated, it's Kuwait

Most of the N Cypriot stuff was new build on virgin land where compnsation costs would be marginal compared to the value of the property.

Still no old property coming up, but the idea is that, although title is a problem, there will be a rational solution to it cos they can't allow it to cause problems down-line.

.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 06:17:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
one workers' and artists' paradise coming up.

paul spencer
by paul spencer (spencerinthegorge AT yahoo DOT com) on Tue Mar 11th, 2008 at 07:39:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Genghis Khan returns!
by das monde on Wed Mar 12th, 2008 at 02:40:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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