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Gaianne has a pretty good point- Sorry, Coleman, but these things rarely have a smoking gun, unless it's the result of someone's monumental blunder or stroke of luck.

Knowing that, here's one of my ways to weed out the conspiracies that are less likely to be real --  consciously assembled. I scale them based on Murpy's law--

When they get so complicated that the odds of success are greatly reduced by the likelihood of bungling, mischance, bad weather(or karma)--- I give them a low likelihood. Here, though, almost all the pieces are in place, and have been. This thing can be made to appear to fall into the category of ordinary tactical ops. And sadly, a false-flag attack is easy. NO ONE is as good at these things as the US is.

McCain's a looney, Obama will ruin their party, the FED will run out of raw meat to throw soon, and the cops are coming, in any case. Oops.
As most here know, I thought the release of the NIE showing no nuclear-armed Iran was likely anytime soon was the end of the road for operation Evil Axis. Perhaps I was premature.

Still, it seems just so incredibly stupid-- insane, in fact, unless raw power is the ONLY issue, to which all else will be sacrificed. I just have little experience in my life with madness on that scale--but history is replete with examples, I guess.

Having said that, I remember Werner Von Braun, and his Pax Americana--- He would surely have done it. He WAS mad enough.

Admiral Farrell may have been a proverbial Dutch boy--

Capitalism searches out the darkest corners of human potential, and mainlines them.

by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Thu Mar 27th, 2008 at 06:51:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Problem is finding someone to fix it on behalf of a lame duck president. Do these guys really inspire enough personal loyalty to get the job done? If they use ideological crazies is the risk of leakage too high? Will the professionals do it for them?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Mar 27th, 2008 at 08:09:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Good questions all- I think the good Admiral refused, (or made it clear that he WOULD refuse) and was replaced.

Remember that the authoritarian personality is powerfully drawn to a military vocation. And Altemeyer's work shows clearly that their obedience-even dedication- to the maximum leader is independent of fact.

As well, a lot of these guys just like it. My (not so)ex-navy seal neighbor in Florida would have done the false-flag job,--just because that's what he did.  

Still, I think that the risk of refusal may well have been one of the major things that has kept the lid on so far.


Capitalism searches out the darkest corners of human potential, and mainlines them.

by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Thu Mar 27th, 2008 at 12:02:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Huh, I didn't realize the link was that explicit.

William J. Fallon - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

On March 11, 2008, he announced his resignation from CENTCOM and retirement from active duty, citing administrative complications caused in part by an article in Esquire Magazine, which described him as the only thing standing between the Bush Administration and war with Iran.
"Administrative complications".

It'd be nice if the battle were only against the right wingers, not half of the left on top of that — François in Paris
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 27th, 2008 at 12:17:27 PM EST
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Gaianne's point seems to be that a false-flag op could give the administration the go-ahead to strike Iran. So it could. But the style - the peremptory announcement, the capitals, the Apocalyptico-conspiratorial manner - does call for a request for some substance to back it up... and perhaps some friendly leg-pulling.

As for: a false-flag attack is easy, maybe. A false flag op that kills more Americans than 9/11, though, strikes me as likely to fall into the so complicated that the odds of success are greatly reduced category ?

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Mar 27th, 2008 at 08:19:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
afew:
As for: a false-flag attack is easy, maybe. A false flag op that kills more Americans than 9/11, though, strikes me as likely to fall into the so complicated that the odds of success are greatly reduced category ?

Agreed. Furthermore I don't see how a false flag op is necessary. They could just poke a stick at the Mahdi Army and blame the reaction on Iran.

Wait this is important. Someone is wrong on the Internet.
by generic on Thu Mar 27th, 2008 at 10:14:44 AM EST
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No, I think that would no longer suffice.
I don't necessarily agree with Gaianne on the casualty count, but it will need to be media-grabbing. Otherwise it will serve little purpose, I think. And you're right- "easy" was a poor choice of words-- but they ARE really, really good at this shit.
Remember, all these things have a major component of perception management. An attack on a US ship, for example, will not suffice for a cover to nuke someone. He's been blowing that rather badly for a while now. As well, right now Bush needs a really loud bang now more than he needs to attack someone--The house is on fire, and a piddling thing won't divert the shmucks enough.
The con wing of the GOP needs McCain in a superman suit, and Bush's twisted psyche needs dead, evil Iranians.
-- two birds--?

I remind you--the intelligence community has sent a clear message- they will not assist in this, and will indeed oppose it. So it's a huge internal struggle still, I think.

Capitalism searches out the darkest corners of human potential, and mainlines them.

by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Thu Mar 27th, 2008 at 12:17:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Fallon was just the latest piece taken off the board, and Bush has been losing in the count. But Fallon was a big piece, folks. A bishop, at least.
Wonder who will go next? Is it end game time?
I still think the economic meltdown is the key- the first retail bank that goes might be a good time to check the wind.

Capitalism searches out the darkest corners of human potential, and mainlines them.
by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Thu Mar 27th, 2008 at 12:25:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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