Maybe you could have that $200/bl marker as your headline, but express a percentage price rise against the euro from the current price. that way we'd be able to see what part is due to the oil rise and what part is due to the dollar's fall keep to the Fen Causeway
The $US100 benchmark was numerologicaly interesting, and I guess there are irrational processes in the market that make round numbers like that more meaningful than they should be. But I don't see any new magic numbers on the horizon. Perhaps we should try something different.
I propose an "objective" means to set the next level would be to ask: what proportional increase in world prices would be necessary, other things being equal, to bring US pump prices to mean levels now paid in Europe? That price could then be denominated in Euro's, with a side-bet, as it were, on the rate of fall of the dollar. Jerôme has already stated a position on that rate...2$/E by the time of 100E Oil.
If the dollar were to fall to that level, the price of oil could well move to $140/bbl yet remain essentially unchanged in terms or euros. Under these conditions, then, has there really been a price increase? In the U.S., most certainly, but for much of the rest of the world, no.
