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That's basically the point I was trying to make -- inelegantly -- in my comment above.  The built-in assumption here that the dollar will continue its decline until it reaches $2=€1 should be factored out of the equation, even if a barrel of oil is still generally priced in dollars.  Given a further decline by the dollar of that magnitude, it is folly to think that the market wouldn't build that in to any current reported price.

If the dollar were to fall to that level, the price of oil could well move to $140/bbl yet remain essentially unchanged in terms or euros.  Under these conditions, then, has there really been a price increase?  In the U.S., most certainly, but for much of the rest of the world, no.

by The Maven on Mon Mar 31st, 2008 at 10:17:41 AM EST
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Thanks, maven. I thought your point was plenty elegant, I just restated it hastily. The new thing in my post was a suggestion as to a meaningful new benchmark...in particular one that would measure the distance between the prices perceived by one enormous pool of consumers(Americans) and the prices now actually paid by another (Europeans). I expect something along those lines could be developed by more knowledgeable people such as Jerôme and/or The Oil Drummers.
by PIGL on Mon Mar 31st, 2008 at 10:58:48 AM EST
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