Looks like $140/bbl by the end of 2008 and close to $200/bbl by 2009, given current trends. But whether those trends persist is hardly a given. After all, even coal has "jumped" on the price increase bandwagon, especially any coal sourced from a place that has access to international markets (= Europe, Japan, China, India) who can afford pricey coal. While some of this may be due to the floods and other "oops" incidents with Australia's coal exporting facilities, a lot of this might be a permanent feature of the energy world. For example, check out http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/coal/page/coalnews/coalmar.html#spot

So, when coal gets pricey (resulting in an electricity price increase of 2 c/kw-hr when prices go up by $40/ton), oil is going extinct (as far as electricity is concerned) and Ngas is getting scarcer by the minute, this should result in boom times for the wind turbine industry, which is the main form of renewables capable of the scale required to replace Ngas and coal. However, no doubt nukers are ready and willing to snatch defeat away from the jaws of victory. And no doubt there are coal companies looking forward to supplying the ammonia industry with their source of H2 - as this can be more profitable than in supplying bulk electricity, which actually has competition.

Currently, NH3 prices are also setting records (currently about $650/ton on the U.S. Gulf Coast, where most U.S. imports arrive), and any new agricultural production of importance - especially wheat and rice production - is going to use mass quantities of NH3. Putting land in Russia, Eastern Europe back into production is going to really squeeze the ammonia production capability of the world to supply these recently activated farm production lands. But it will make more food, at least for those who can afford it.

Anyone for $1000/ton NH3 prices by the end of 2008? After all, wheat prices of $10/bushel and rice at $380/tonne can probably justify such high fertilizer prices, but coal is still a lot cheaper than Ngas. This way, Ngas can go to pricey residential heating and other such uses...but at a bad cost to the world. Using coal to make H2 makes a lot more CO2/unit H2 made, which is not exactly something that is needed right now.

Nb41