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the US dollar to continue its decline to a point where $2=€1, is that really representing a significant increase in "real" terms (obviously it's an increase over the current price)?  To the degree that the nominal price of oil remains factored in dollars, a decline to a $2/€1 ratio would itself cause much of that rise.  But is that genuinely meaningful outside the U.S. if the relative price in the local currency changes much less?  Rather than representing a 90%+ increase over the current price, for Europeans, it would instead be less than a 50% increase (assuming a current exchange rate of $1.578=€1.00 and an oil price of $105.62 based on Friday's market close in New York, making the current price €66.92).

I'm not saying that the new target isn't a worthwhile one on which to focus, but that if we're really interested in tracking the "true" price of oil (and not currency fluctuations), use of either a market basket of currencies or a fixed historical exchange rate would better serve the project.

by The Maven on Sun Mar 30th, 2008 at 08:01:42 PM EST
... fundamental input like crude oil is a significant change. Especially when that involves passing the previous high water mark and therefore entering uncharted territory.

Indeed, given that "Countdown to €100 Oil" was originally presented as one alternative for the next "Oil Countdown" series, if you reckon that the US$ will likely be €0.50 when we get there, its just translating that Countdown into terms suitable for the inside-the-US-media-bubble Daily Kos.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Mar 31st, 2008 at 02:51:43 PM EST
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