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Given that Oil is a finite resource you are bound to be right sooner or later.  The real question is how soon the €100 price target will be met.  5 years seems a reasonable medium term target, or had you a much quicker increase in mind?  

Its hard not to see even current price levels as a significant barrier to consumption growth - particularly in poorer countries - and so the current price could contain an element of overshoot.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Sun Mar 30th, 2008 at 10:46:38 PM EST
On the other hand it is not difficult to think up geopolitical scenarios that could make things a lot worse really fast. Political collapse in Saudi Arabia being one easy-to-envision example...
by asdf on Sun Mar 30th, 2008 at 11:39:44 PM EST
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