Display:
Actually what is worrying me more right now is the sudden uptick in the price of staple carbohydrates like wheat and rice.

The difference between theory and practise in practise ...
by DeAnander (de_at_daclarke_dot_org) on Mon Mar 31st, 2008 at 01:45:23 AM EST
Rice prices have doubled since January, when the grain traded at about $380 a tonne, boosted by strong Asian, Middle Eastern and African demand.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Mon Mar 31st, 2008 at 02:50:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The wheat price rises last year were brought about by lousy harvests across many areas and crappy transport logistics in the Mid-West USA where the harvest was excellent. I really can't see either happening again to such an extent.

It is also an encouraging factor that Russian & Ukranian wheat growing areas south and east of Moscow are being brought back into production after years of abandonment and neglect. this is not just because of the rise in prices, which will continue, but also because an awful lot of agro-corporates are seeing the premiums available for land across the world are buying up land cheaply wherever they can get it and being brought into production. I know that farms in Bulgaria, which a couple of years ago were being practically given away, are now commanding very good prices. This is especially so from Britain where there are a large number of trained farm managers unable to earn a preferred living willing to up sticks and develop these new prairie farms.

Rice is a different problem more related to water shortages. I'd suggest that we will see activity to address this issue in SW Africa before too long.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Mar 31st, 2008 at 06:19:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You're not wrong about demand leading corporates and others to bring land back under the plough, but don't forget with Bulgaria the entry into the EU and (potential, even if not enormous) farm subsidies.

When the CAP changed in the '90s from product-price subsidies to land surface subsidies, the price of eligible land shot up.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Mar 31st, 2008 at 06:30:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The stuff about Russian and Ukrainian farmland is very interesting. The soil is still excellent, and with modern methods not only can production be radically improved, but so can the soil which will then be beyond excellent.

Some people who saw where the wind was blowing is the Swedish Lundin billionaire family, of Lundin Petroleum (financing The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, ASPO) and Lundin Mining fame. They have started the company Black Earth Farming which is investing in exactly this line of business.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Mon Mar 31st, 2008 at 09:51:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... if anything, even if the drought ends up not being as severe this year, I would expect a long term secular trend toward converting former marginal wheat land back to cattle and other pasture, just from changes that are going to be hammered out in terms of water allocation.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Mar 31st, 2008 at 02:55:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:
Login
. Make a new account
. Reset password
Occasional Series