The whole Saudi-organized process started about one year ago. They called Cheney over in May and made him realize that the takeover idea was not feasible. Then things developed in such a way that I think Chris' point is easily demonstrated. The U.S. slowly calmed its anti-Iran hysteria; the Sunni areas relented somewhat; the Shiites were allowed to cleanse the eastern 2/3rds of Baghdad; the British backed out of Basra; and the U.S. stood down a lot of the search-and-destroy on the ground (granted that they still dropped a lot of bombs from the sky - allegedly on al-Qaeda, which probably meant the remaining hotheads).
What is in it for the Saudis is that they want to pump and ship their oil without a lot of missiles and such making a mess (missiles from Iran, of course). They could easily see - if they weren't directly informed by the Iranians - where the missiles would be directed: U.S. ships and Saudi facilities. (Threatening Israel is just pro forma.) And then there's the al-Anbar oil fields, about which they probably have more data and knowledge than anyone else. paul spencer
If Cheney was given the word in May, then it doesn't really explain why the administration were still trying to talk up military action against Iran in late November, a full month after the NIE blew their case out of the water. I confess I saw no diminution in the rhetoric till people started laughing at them.
Iran knows better than to fire missiles in the direction of the "nation in the gulf most armed to the teeth". I can't believe for a minute the Saudis were concerned about that. 'Sides, if it came to a shooting war with the US, the Iranians have got 140,000 hostages up for grabs (literally) 50 miles from their border, why get involved in risky shit with Saudi ?
Still, the northern anbar field point ins well made, but I can't see the Sunni Iraqis giving that up cos it's their only asset. keep to the Fen Causeway
The U.S. 'hostages' were not really in danger of frontal assault or of encirclement. The danger to them was mostly logistical - that is, they - and the local oil-producers - are dependent on ship support. My reading says that the missiles that the Russkies supplied were all about the shipping.
As far as "armed to the teeth", the Saudi army is about as unproven as the army of Costa Rica at present. They haven't picked on anyone other than a few women car-drivers and some token 'terrorists' in a number of decades. As to their air force - appears to be largely fighters - air-to-air mostly - again, untested - how capable against modern SAMS? paul spencer
