Hubbert peak theory - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Based on his theory, in a paper^[3] he presented to the American Petroleum Institute in 1956, Hubbert predicted that production of oil from conventional sources would peak in the continental United States around 1965-1970 (actual peak was 1970). Hubbert further predicted a worldwide peak at "about half a century" from publication and approximately 12 gigabarrels (GB) a year in magnitude. In a 1976 TV interview^[4] Hubbert added that the actions of OPEC might flatten the global production curve but this would only delay the peak for perhaps 10 years.

Kenneth Deffeyes, Hubbert's understudy, wrote at least two books about Hubbert and his work.  He goes into fascinating detail about the sequence of geological events that are required to turn fossils into oil and/or natural gas and why we find them today where we do.  From there he develops Hubbert's theory for those of us who are not petroleum geologists.  I recommend both books if you haven't read them.

Hubbert predicted the peak in US domestic production almost a quarter century before it happened.  He called the peak within five years and, according to Deffeyes, the actual production numbers match his curve uncomfortably well, both before and after the peak.  Later researchers including Deffeyes extended his work to look at global production and so far the numbers match again uncomfortably well.  Deffeyes actually called the peak a couple of years ago in past tense.  He pronounced himself no longer a prophet but an historian.  I'm at work now and don't have that link handy, but if I can find it later I'll add another comment.  I took his point to be that so-called conventional oil production would follow an inexorable, roughly symmetrical curve no matter what demand or price did.


Somewhere in cyberspace, the ghost of de Chardin is smiling.