*Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
Now, just looking at EA-15 trade stats, it appears that despite a strenghtening value of the EUR relative to CNY, the trade deficit with the PRC continues to be stable, as if managed and indeed, it would appear that whereas early on in the float of CNY, it was clear that the PBOC was managing viz USD, slowly it becomes apparent that the PBOC is managing viz other trading partners as well, and likely accumulating EUR-denominated assets in the process.
Meanwhile, and this is pure speculation which may or may not be borne out by statistics to be issued later, export growth to the PRC from he EA-15 is indeed extremely robust, my guess due to large purchases of capital goods (noting the German numbers).
So, we can expect stagnation in the trade situation with a deteriorating US whose currency continues to price out Eurozone exports, with Russia, China and other non EA15 eastern european countries being the source of future growth. But it is hard to sustain export growth when one is busy haranguing ones trading partners and goading them into boycotting your goods. Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant
Is your working hypothesis that the PRC government 'compensates' for the exchange rate deterioration by exerting control over the volume of public and private exports/imports? (Also, when staying "stable", what timeframe do you consider?)
I think such a hypothesis would need some further evidence to be seriously considered. Meanwhile, to spell out the big picture in the two diagrams: (1) all the short-term variation in EUR/CNY is explained by volatility in the EUR/USD rate, while on a longer term, the slow and steady decline of the USD/CNY rate does indicate management (which does involve diversifying assets); (2) the dollar depreciates relative to the Euro faster than relative to the renminbi, thus the Chinese exchange rate policy is steadily beneficial to US manufacturers, but at the same time still steadily worsening for Eurozone manufacturers.
But it is hard to sustain export growth when one is busy haranguing ones trading partners and goading them into boycotting your goods.
Boycotts could cut more into imports than exports in absolute numbers, so the trade deficit with the PRC would decline.
I submit the boycott calls and the nationalist protests against Western pro-Tibet protests (some participants of which are nasty like all nationalists) are topical to the issue of Eurozone external trade, even if not to the presentation of January and February statistics.
Myself, I don't think much of PRC products boycotts over Tibet, but I see stronger reasons. I am for long the view that neoliberal free-trade policy helps a race to the bottom, that in wages and labour rights and environmental/consumer protection regulations; and for that reason, I also or long think that the EU should make trade with the PRC conditional on improvements in environmental, work safety standards and labour rights. (But fat chance our Democracy warriors will recognise trade unions as a vehicle of democracy.) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
I note this doesn't just mean the bilateral trade, but also Eurozone-Chinese competition on the market of third countries, and outsourcing decisions taken by multinationals. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
As an illustration to the question, I prepared this diagram of seasonally adjusted Eurozone trade balance numbers:
