Now which country would absolutely love a rift between the PRC and the EU?
Now go re-visit all that Tibet nonesense.
Making a little more sense now as to who's the tool of whom?
Tusk and Klaus should've been giving strong clues. Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant
Or you can look at how those Eurotribbers who are both strong Europhiles and self-confessed supporters of ending US hegemonic status have been dealing with the issue. Connect the dots...
The main point of the diary was to mock the perverse propaganda that seeks to turn clear evidence of deteriorating terms of trade for the USA relative to EU as proof that the Diseased Anglo NeoCons were right all along.
It isn't just about taking the US down a peg, but also, protecting workers in the EU and managing through what may very well be trying economic times.
Thus the importance of the relationship with the PRC, with Russia, and with Latin America.
The most vociferous opponents of the PRC have been coming from the European right-wing., with the exception of France, whose center-left has chosen to use the issue as a way to embarass a right-wing government.
Finally, we don't know how violent protests in the US would have been because the running of the torch in San Francisco, unlike that in Paris, was actually properly managed. Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant
- Jake If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.
I shall not be bothering JakeS or anyone else for that matter with my objections or other opinions on this or any other subject. Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant
There is no other message loud and clear.
If monetary policy expresses attachment vs. rift, the PRC is rather closely aligned with the US, even with some re-alignment. In fact that re-alignment is seen as beneficial by part of the US elite (the neocon part, which believes a yuan appreciating relative to the dollar will be bad for Chinese and good for US manufacturing; as opposed to the part of the US elite running financial capitalism and owning factories in the PRC), and was demanded on international fora more forcefully by the Dubya government than the EU.
If we examine exchange rates, simultaneously with the stagnating Euro/yuan exchange rate, we indeed see a slow declining Euro/Yuan trend until the middle of February - but then again skyrocketing. So ths is useful to explain the development of Eurozone exports and imports to China, but not as evidence of some EU orientation. Meanwhile the appreciation relative to the dollar has a fairly steady trend, which does say something, but not what you did.
Connecting this to Tibet is - nonsense. Connecting this to the Dalai Lama and Western Free Tibet protesters is on the verge of a B-movie conspiracy theory. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
*Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
Now, just looking at EA-15 trade stats, it appears that despite a strenghtening value of the EUR relative to CNY, the trade deficit with the PRC continues to be stable, as if managed and indeed, it would appear that whereas early on in the float of CNY, it was clear that the PBOC was managing viz USD, slowly it becomes apparent that the PBOC is managing viz other trading partners as well, and likely accumulating EUR-denominated assets in the process.
Meanwhile, and this is pure speculation which may or may not be borne out by statistics to be issued later, export growth to the PRC from he EA-15 is indeed extremely robust, my guess due to large purchases of capital goods (noting the German numbers).
So, we can expect stagnation in the trade situation with a deteriorating US whose currency continues to price out Eurozone exports, with Russia, China and other non EA15 eastern european countries being the source of future growth. But it is hard to sustain export growth when one is busy haranguing ones trading partners and goading them into boycotting your goods. Fai de bèn a Bertrand, te lou rendra en cagant
Is your working hypothesis that the PRC government 'compensates' for the exchange rate deterioration by exerting control over the volume of public and private exports/imports? (Also, when staying "stable", what timeframe do you consider?)
I think such a hypothesis would need some further evidence to be seriously considered. Meanwhile, to spell out the big picture in the two diagrams: (1) all the short-term variation in EUR/CNY is explained by volatility in the EUR/USD rate, while on a longer term, the slow and steady decline of the USD/CNY rate does indicate management (which does involve diversifying assets); (2) the dollar depreciates relative to the Euro faster than relative to the renminbi, thus the Chinese exchange rate policy is steadily beneficial to US manufacturers, but at the same time still steadily worsening for Eurozone manufacturers.
But it is hard to sustain export growth when one is busy haranguing ones trading partners and goading them into boycotting your goods.
Boycotts could cut more into imports than exports in absolute numbers, so the trade deficit with the PRC would decline.
I submit the boycott calls and the nationalist protests against Western pro-Tibet protests (some participants of which are nasty like all nationalists) are topical to the issue of Eurozone external trade, even if not to the presentation of January and February statistics.
Myself, I don't think much of PRC products boycotts over Tibet, but I see stronger reasons. I am for long the view that neoliberal free-trade policy helps a race to the bottom, that in wages and labour rights and environmental/consumer protection regulations; and for that reason, I also or long think that the EU should make trade with the PRC conditional on improvements in environmental, work safety standards and labour rights. (But fat chance our Democracy warriors will recognise trade unions as a vehicle of democracy.) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
I note this doesn't just mean the bilateral trade, but also Eurozone-Chinese competition on the market of third countries, and outsourcing decisions taken by multinationals. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
As an illustration to the question, I prepared this diagram of seasonally adjusted Eurozone trade balance numbers:
