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European Tribune - America. By the balls?
But what's that, I hear? A french social democrat calling for looser ECB monetary policy? I think Jerome will be disappointed...

Or perhaps not.  Reducing interest rates in response to risks to growth is not the same thing as deregulation, and to date the ECB has done neither.  The threat of a world recession is another matter entirely - I have been wondering how badly the oil price increase has been hitting poorer economies.  

I must be the only one here who thinks that Oil prices may actually go DOWN in the next couple of years because of the fact that poorer economies will simply collapse at current price levels.  That is not to say, of course, that the medium and long term trend will not be inexorably upwards.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Wed Apr 2nd, 2008 at 12:13:36 PM EST
A price drop is certainly within the range of possibilities, and would be a horrible disaster, discrediting the whole idea of peak oil in the popular media.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Apr 2nd, 2008 at 12:20:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Frank Schnittger:
I must be the only one here who thinks that Oil prices may actually go DOWN in the next couple of years because of the fact that poorer economies will simply collapse at current price levels.

Ummm... yes, but down in relation to what?

I think that we may already be seeing the beginning of oil becoming the de facto global reserve currency.

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Wed Apr 2nd, 2008 at 12:20:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Back down to c. $70-100 - no where near $20 obviously - and not enough to discredit peak oil discourse in the popular media as Colman fears.  However if it does become the reserve currency, and it keeps getting scarcer, and subject to ongoing large scale speculation, then it could also become an even more volatile commodity.

"It's a mystery to me - the game commences, For the usual fee - plus expenses, Confidential information - it's in my diary..."
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Wed Apr 2nd, 2008 at 12:59:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We don't think of peak oil as pumping more oil right now than any time in world history. There is no price floor if demand falls.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Wed Apr 2nd, 2008 at 12:59:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think we'll need to keep talking about $100 oil in the foreseeable future.

Not because the price won't go down (and I agree with you on what may well be happening in the ldc's), but because the USD will go down.

Thus the need to speak of EUR100 oil.

I can't wait to move back if only so I get a damn EUR sign on my keyboard.

"C'est un scandale !"

by redstar on Wed Apr 2nd, 2008 at 01:03:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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