Yep, no need to explain to me. (This parallels my point to EUropeans in France and further West about neoliberals not being Eurosceptic.)

think a sort of Polish Chavez or a bit worse, with the same attitude towards the EU, and in particular Germany, that Venezuela or Iran have towards the US, only a lot closer.

If I try to think of that, I see a posturing President that lobbies neighbours it can -- them being the Baltics and maybe Ukraine. However, on one hand, such a Poland would not have an oil wealth to dish out (nor military strength, which would be more to the point in the given context), limiting its influence on other countries. On the other hand, neither Iran nor Venezuela are connected in a strong political institution with the USA, so they are little help for me to imagine how such a Poland would act.

Here are my initial thoughts.

First of all, would NATO fall apart, I think the Polish elite (and population) would splinter into three camps:

1. exclusively Europhile, be it for idealist and pragmatic reasons (a minority, but would that not include even some CAP-receiving peasants?),
   
2. Europhiles who'd make Poland a staunch anti-defense-integration pole in the EU and who'd continue Atlanticism in bilateral form (this is what Polish elites already did on Iraq and missile defense), methinks likely the majority,
   
3. Atlanticist Eurosceptics.

But if the worst-case scenario of an autocratic and hostile right-wing Poland emerges,

• that will be first of all really bad for Poland (not to mention the Russian minorityx in the Baltics, AND the Baltic states if Russia feels freeer to respond, unless the US builds bases there too),
  
• the direct economic consequences would again be more serious for Poland (loss of subsidies as well as trade),
  
• Poland could well be dumped from the EU (or its government choose itself) for some gross violations of the acquis, say the re-introduction of the dealth penalty.