I wonder how you play out my mind-game on this, too.
Let's imagine that NATO is dissolved, and Poland and the Baltics 'go rouge' for their internal reasons. It doesn't matter for our purposes whether what these governments do is rational, justifiable or ethical, let's view this from the viewpoint of major powers looking on.
One can assume that in a Baltics with Russophobia gone wild, the big Russian minorities would get a much worse treatment than today. (Maybe even civil war.)
So, how do you think Russia would respond?
And once Russia responds, what about the USA: (1) how should it respond, (2) how would it respond? *Traitor*, n. A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
(I don't know off-hand if NATO member countries have ever faced a civil war during its existence (I assume Slovenia got its membership rather after the fact), so I don't know what NATO's policy is regarding internal conflict among its membership. I know you are arguing that without the safety net of NATO russophobia could explode. But it is an interesting question...)
So if Russians began being massacred by Poles, what would Russia's response be? I have no idea but am under the impression that the UN can intervene in these situations and I am fairly certain Russia would bring the matter to the UNSC. They'd probably play the energy card too. I'm sorry, but with regard to external matters, they do seem to prefer a diplomatic rte. first. And I think they have some leverage. Also, ... I still can't see the EU not taking action on such a matter. I do think it depends on what you mean by "much worse". Random hate crimes? Or government endorsed ethnic violence? Anyway...
Would Russia invade Poland if the Polish government endorsed ethnic violence toward Russians as a result of heightened russophobia brought on by the dissolution of Nato? Meaning: would Russia bomb Poland as a direct result of NATO not existing? I know there are people paid to sit in rooms and make up these scenarios, but really, on the probability scale, where are we? It seems an unlikely scenario, that Russia would invade or that there would be some kind of Polish ethnic (not that that's a really appropriate term) civil war.
Russia would (maybe should) threaten to invade if nothing is done to stop this hypothetical government endorsed ethnic violence toward Russians. "Government endorsed" because ostensibly the government has not prevented or put and end to it. Would they actually launch missiles? Not if the current regime gives us any indication of anything. I think Russia cannot afford it. Economically (will Europe still buy its gas if it bombs and EU nation?!) or politically. They've gained too much and their hold on it is too tenuous, IMO. Any military intervention in this hypothetical scenario should be done through the UN. Neither the US nor Russia should act alone. And I can't imagine the US intervening unilaterally on behalf of those commiting the ethnic violence. Well, unless they managed to convince America the Russians were Al Quaeda. Sadly for Poland, this is where the US and Russia are allies: GWOT. So I don't even think that would work. So it could even create a situation in which the US and Russia are allied against this psycho, Russian-slaughtering Poland.
YMMV. I may have no idea what I am talking about. Come, my friends, 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world.
No, we are talking about countries potentially getting mad at and maybe even leraving the EU. *Traitor*, n. A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
Who knows what Russia or the US would do. We can also throw in, what if the UN didn't exist for the hell of it.
But I'd like to stick to talking about actual reality. Or are you in fact suggesting the rationale for maintaining NATO is based on a rather impressive list of far-flung scenarios. NATO dissolves ->Poland leaves EU ->Poland begins slaughtering Russians -> Polish civil war -> Europe does nothing -> UN does nothing -> Russia reacts unilaterally -> America reacts after Russia's gone and bombed Poland (no, you did not explicitly ask that, but it was implied).
Frankly, I think we'll all die from global warming before any of that happens... Or be invaded by alien unicorns. Come, my friends, 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world.
For me, only two radical hypotheticals are involved (NATO dissolution and worst-case-scenario outcome for the political landscape of the Russophobic block).
No need to get testy. I'm not suggesting anything, I explore possibilities to form an opinion, possibilities that I should consider if I want NATO dissolved (which I do want). If you don't like hypothetising, don't answer. (And don't call for NATO's dissolution either.) *Traitor*, n. A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
Well, Turkey (PKK vs. the Turkish state).
I know you are arguing that without the safety net of NATO russophobia could explode.
No. I'm exploring the hypothetical that without the perceived safety net and after going anti-EU and far-right-wing Russophobia would explode.
So if Russians began being massacred by Poles
That's hardly likely. I was talking about the Baltics, and it doesn't have to be a massacre for Russia to consider doing something -- there could be further legal restrictions on citizenship rights, pushing people to move to Russia, and yes random hate crimes.
They'd probably play the energy card too.
Hmmm, that figures. But then I can imagine further escalation if the USA or the EU or private firms do emergency supply.
And I can't imagine the US intervening unilaterally on behalf of those commiting the ethnic violence. Well, unless they managed to convince America the Russians were Al Quaeda.
Ah, but it's much easier, don't be forgetful. Just think of Kosovo, think of the Krajinas in Croatia. In 1995, the US DID support the ethnic cleansers. They have to convince the public that The Russians Started It, and then it's just.
Also, what about 'intervening' already before the conflict, by establishing bases? *Traitor*, n. A benighted individual who perceives an illusory distinction between serving his nation and abetting the criminals who govern it.
You'll have to explain more. If I wasn't aware of it, I still don't know what NATO's policy is.
Right. Got it.
I was talking about the Baltics, and it doesn't have to be a massacre for Russia to consider doing something -- there could be further legal restrictions on citizenship rights, pushing people to move to Russia, and yes random hate crimes.
I'm sorry, that was unclear. Still the Baltics are also in the EU & Nato. You brought up civil war. I think it takes more than a hate crime to start that. You keep saying Russia would do something about some because of something. Vague enough for me to not be able to read your mind and yet be wrong ... heh.
Wait, are we or aren't we talking about ethnic violence? If you are talking about " legal restrictions on citizenship rights, pushing people to move to Russia, and yes random hate crimes" then how are they going to argue The Russians Started It? I'm not saying we don't support ethnic cleansers. I assumed we were talking about Poland (I see now we were not, sorry) because of Marek's comment. That has different emotional connotations for us. Nothing is impossible. But while I bet most Americans -like me- know nothing about the Krajinas, you say "ethnic cleansing in Poland" and everyone's on the same page. It's unconscionable. Talking about a country of people who go to Auschwitz for pilgrimages...
Also, what about 'intervening' already before the conflict, by establishing bases?
That wasn't what you asked.
Hey, what about NOT being Russophobic! Look at all of the bazillion hypothetical problems THAT would solve! Come, my friends, 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world.
Hey, what about NOT being Russophobic! Look at all of the bazillion hypothetical problems THAT would solve!
You mean if the pink alien unicorns would not be Russophobic? Yes, that is an interesting scenario.
Or maybe you meant our political leaders, but then it just gets so whacky unrealistic we could just as well assuming them to start acting in the common good.
I know that is not really what any country is saying.
But it seems to be the argument left standing in this game of "what would happen if NATO dissolved." Come, my friends, 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world.
PS, you seem to be focussed on this war thing, but that's not what I was talking about.
In the Baltics any moral picture would be cloudy since it would likely not be a sudden pogrom but rather a spiral of mutual escalation.
However, the realistic worst case scenario doesn't involve war, but rather destabilization. The constant political and diplomatic headache of dealing with one crisis after another. The effect that has on economies. The damned if you do, damned if you don't dilemna of whether or not you throw the countries out of the EU.
Why do we keep talking about NATO as if the UN does not exist (however incompetent it is, it does exist!) -it is beyone me. What's with this "It's my poor little country and big bad Russia all alone in the world" complex?
You think without NATO everywhere else would cease to exist? You think that even without NATO, any incursion by Russia would not have geo-political consequences for nations that now belong to Nato. Come, my friends, 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world.
I do understand that. But I think there is a failure here to move beyond the outdated belief that America is necessarily part of the solution and Russia is necessarily part of the problem and to begin to explore how Poland can take the reigns of its own welfare and ditto for the EU. A stability which must rely on American imperialism -and that is what NATO is, like it or not, and fear of Russia is not a true stability, just like the missile defence is not a true defence. And it's frankly unfair to America and Russia because it impedes our ability to become closer allies.
A house isn't made stable by a guard dog, a shotgun and a fence. It's the foundation and the structure that keep it stable. Without that no external protection is going to mean shit. And that should be where you start. If Poland has problems, NATO isn't the solution, it's a stop-gap. Come, my friends, 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world.
