In the Baltics any moral picture would be cloudy since it would likely not be a sudden pogrom but rather a spiral of mutual escalation.
However, the realistic worst case scenario doesn't involve war, but rather destabilization. The constant political and diplomatic headache of dealing with one crisis after another. The effect that has on economies. The damned if you do, damned if you don't dilemna of whether or not you throw the countries out of the EU.
Why do we keep talking about NATO as if the UN does not exist (however incompetent it is, it does exist!) -it is beyone me. What's with this "It's my poor little country and big bad Russia all alone in the world" complex?
You think without NATO everywhere else would cease to exist? You think that even without NATO, any incursion by Russia would not have geo-political consequences for nations that now belong to Nato. Come, my friends, 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world.
I do understand that. But I think there is a failure here to move beyond the outdated belief that America is necessarily part of the solution and Russia is necessarily part of the problem and to begin to explore how Poland can take the reigns of its own welfare and ditto for the EU. A stability which must rely on American imperialism -and that is what NATO is, like it or not, and fear of Russia is not a true stability, just like the missile defence is not a true defence. And it's frankly unfair to America and Russia because it impedes our ability to become closer allies.
A house isn't made stable by a guard dog, a shotgun and a fence. It's the foundation and the structure that keep it stable. Without that no external protection is going to mean shit. And that should be where you start. If Poland has problems, NATO isn't the solution, it's a stop-gap. Come, my friends, 'Tis not too late to seek a newer world.
