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  1. Never trust anything published in FT.
  2. Never trust anything written by a person whose living comes from making money from money.

The sky is falling, but this current downturn isn't it. It's just another turn in the business cycle. Since the world has gone off the gold standard, there are no physical restrictions on what countries can do to correct financial imbalances. The only limit is the willingness of others to accept their money or credit. When the strongest nation on earth (US) starts to get shaky its currency devalued about 50%. When one of weakest (Zimbabwe) acts imprudently, they can't give it away and inflation rates reach 30,000%.

The US has a cushion, in that if the currency sinks too far all those holding treasury notes will suffer a big loss. This keeps a lid on wild currency movement.

The real sky is falling scenario is unfolding much more slowly, it is a combination of over population, excessive consumption, declining resources and uncontrolled pollution. There are no realistic plans for how to deal with this. In fact there may be no way out of this that doesn't involve huge dislocations. The population of the earth is now so large that the loss of a few million people in a regional conflict hardly makes the news anymore. From 2-3 million to 100 million is a small step, especially if those suffering are "over there".

The only risk to the developed nations is that the civil wars which are becoming commonplace in Africa and other poor regions spread back home when the imbalances in society get too large. The riots in France should be a warning to those in Europe. The US hasn't had its wakeup call yet.

Policies not Politics
---- Daily Landscape

by rdf (robert.feinman@gmail.com) on Fri Apr 25th, 2008 at 06:49:27 PM EST
That's it in a nutshell

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Fri Apr 25th, 2008 at 07:10:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
rdf:
The sky is falling, but this current downturn isn't it. It's just another turn in the business cycle. Since the world has gone off the gold standard, there are no physical restrictions on what countries can do to correct financial imbalances. The only limit is the willingness of others to accept their money or credit.

The sky is commencing its fall IMHO but the problem does not lie in the US exchange rate. I agree with you that creditor nations share an unholy mutual interest in not seeing the dollar go entirely down the toilet.

That is not the problem.

The problem in the US is that the deficit-based monetary system is entirely - and probably permanently - fucked.

ie a pending shortage of money.

IMHO the only policies capable of avoiding the pending Depression are fiscal: a Green New Deal, for choice.

Unfortunately not one of the existing Presidential candidates shows any signs of applying any policies other than conventional monetary insanity.

Give it a few months, and lots of red lights will be showing....

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Fri Apr 25th, 2008 at 08:58:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ChrisCook, I think you've got the general outline right, and nobody can predict all the details yet anyway. I saw a joke that's going around in Europe.

Q: What's the difference between one dollar and one euro?  ...  A: One euro.

That not-so-light-hearted jest tends to confirm your point that the "deficit dollar" has about reached the end of its useful life, and high time, too.

On the other hand, I'm not sure about a "shortage of money." I think the Feds will continue to respond by feeding money into the system. What's not clear is how and where they would feed it. I do totally agree that a works program is the only possible right answer, assuming that's what you mean by a "Green New Deal."

Since our friends the financiers have failed so pathetically to manage the, you know, finances, it's time for others to get a shot at running the system.

Obama will be smart enough to make that happen, I think. A few more months like these past few and an awful lot of people are going to be ready to go along with him on it.

Less than a mile from my house in New Jersey, I just saw gasoline at $3.54 and diesel at $4.49. If those prices persist, big changes are coming to Main Street a lot sooner than most people realize.

by Ralph on Sat Apr 26th, 2008 at 02:04:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ralph:
On the other hand, I'm not sure about a "shortage of money." I think the Feds will continue to respond by feeding money into the system. What's not clear is how and where they would feed it.

The shortage of money derives from the nfact that historically it has been the Banks - not the Fed - which creates it.

Bank balance sheets are fucked, but more than that the investors (through securitisation, credit derivatives and credit insurance) whose capital actually backed most of the credit fuelling the Mother of All Bubbles have gone - probably for good.

The question is whether the Fed actually dares to bail out the banks by buying rather than pawning their toxic waste. As opposed to actually nationalising the banks like we do over here.

Did you mean to give me a "3"? I'm offended! ;-)

"The future is already here -- it's just not very evenly distributed" William Gibson

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Apr 26th, 2008 at 07:53:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The US hasn't had its wakeup call yet.

yes it has, it was the sixties, and they've slept through the alarm.

oh yeah and jailed a quarter of the young black population, meanwhile, with imported crack and zero tolerance, guns as easy to score as a gram of mindfuck-rock.

they just built a tougher pressure cooker.

psst, that steam escaping from under the thingy in the lid, that's obama.

if it weren't for that...well, let's say it feels good to have the atlantic there.

it's kinda hilarious that the only tactic powerful enough to chill large crowds of unemployed, 'bitter' people, gathering for great sports events etc, might be to legalise puff.

less controversial than spraying them with 'anomie-gas' from helicopters or knocking them over with water cannon!

that's the last card they'll have to pull out of their ermine sleeves, lol.

go back home and, like good children, listen to your ipods, chill and dream up a better world, while we finish properly raping this one.

shurrup and watch the telly, basically...oh wait...

backs would really have to be up against the wall to make that happen, the pope would have to make it the eucharist in italy!

gonna fill those churches again though! what about it benedict?

do the math, you think waxen saints are going to pull them in for ever? why should the devil get all the best drugs?

grillo for pontiff!

"It's very hard to see what is kept invisible" Roseanne Barr

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sat Apr 26th, 2008 at 04:31:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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