Display:
Because the economy for most of the middle class has been in trouble for twenty plus years and whatever secure feeling the middle class was able to take away from the 'growth'(greed) of the economy of recent years,  was due to their conspicuous consumption based on their ability to have higher limits on their credit cards and the ATM usage of their home equity. Their credit lines are being decreased dramatically and unfortunately their income will not be increased. Therefore they will no longer be the engine of the 'growth' of the economy for a small group of people and the illusion of this 'faux growth' will no longer be accepted by the middle class. No substantial recovery for many years until the inequality of income is addressed.
by An American in London on Mon Apr 28th, 2008 at 12:42:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I thought we were talking about the effect of a long-crisis on oil prices. Quentin seems to think the demand destruction will be insufficient to reduce them substantially I was wondering why.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Apr 28th, 2008 at 12:44:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Whether supply decreases or not, the direct and indirect expenses of capturing petroleum are already increasing: more difficult environments; the circular effect of increased 'energy' costs on production of tools, equipment, and supplies; the circular effect of increased 'energy' costs on transportation of oil; the lower EROI on potential 'alternative' sources (shale oil, tar sands, etc.).

Then, of course, there is the standard class analysis. Oil is oligopolistic, and the oligarchs have a fairly consistent history of trying to husband their interests. I would say that this is the more important aspect of the question; 'market forces' are secondary.

paul spencer

by paul spencer (spencerinthegorge AT yahoo DOT com) on Mon Apr 28th, 2008 at 03:46:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think so too. The high prices will be maintained, in any way, for the benefit of the producers. The recession, no matter how deep, will be of no interest to them. Just cut production. 'Market forces' mean: I have something you need to stay alive and I can set the price. Even if Coleman is right and prices go down because of less demand, the previous level of demand will not/cannot be 'destroyed', it will only lie dormant, so to speak, as the bosses (1990s  movers and shakers, ha!)are noy planning to kick the fossil fuel addiction. Tomorrow as the recession recedes, maybe partly owing to reduced energy prices, the price of energy will rise in parallel with the recovery. Any recession that causes prices to go down substantially over a long period will definitely not be a nice experience for most people around the world. The price is now structural. But everyone knows the solution: reduce the consumption of fossil fuels. Easier said than done, maybe. Where there is a will, there is a way. Maybe. Doomsday: the price of oil reflects devaluation and inflation, the price of food is catching up, and the prices of all other goods will soon follow suit. This implies that each individual will soon need twice as much money as (s)he has today to live at the same standard. And where are we going to get this money? I have no idea. Let the printing presses and the good times roll.
by Quentin on Wed Apr 30th, 2008 at 03:48:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
what is there to add? "The price is now structural." Well formulated.

paul spencer
by paul spencer (spencerinthegorge AT yahoo DOT com) on Wed Apr 30th, 2008 at 04:51:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:
Login
. Make a new account
. Reset password
Occasional Series